49ers' cap outlook depends on Kap's performance

Jason Fitzgerald

49ers' cap outlook depends on Kap's performance image

Salary cap implications for a successful team are almost impossible to avoid, and the 49ers are seeing them on the heels of a three-year run. Having lost key players to cap considerations and retirements, San Francisco still faces critical roster decisions. Those in the near future will tell whether the team is in full rebuilding mode or simply retooling the roster.

In a team-by-team salary cap space breakdown heading into the 2015 season, we look at what teams have spent, what they have left and the decisions they'll face in the near future. No franchise can ignore the implications of their financial decisions and still expect to win, no matter how good the play-calling.

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49ERS SALARY CAP SPACE REPORT

Financial summary

Salary cap space: $10.3 million

Largest cap charge: Colin Kaepernick, $15.3 million

Best value: Joe Staley, $7.6 million

Worst value: Vernon Davis, $7 million

Percentage of cap spent on Top 5 players: 29.8

Percentage of cap spent on dead money: 9.3

Offseason moves

Key additions: WR Torrey Smith, DE Darnell Dockett, CB Shareece Wright, RB Reggie Bush, OT Erik Pears, LB Phillip Wheeler

Key losses: LB Patrick Willis, G Mike Iupati, CB Chris Culliver, OT Anthony Davis, CB Perrish Cox, DE Justin Smith, LB Dan Skuta, RB Frank Gore, WR Steve Johnson, P Andy Lee, WR Michael Crabtree

Draft picks: DE Arik Armstead, S Jaquiski Tartt, DE Eli Harold, TE Blake Bell, RB Mike Davis, WR DeAndre Smelter, P  Bradley Pinion, G Ian Siberman, OT Trenton Brown, TE Rory Anderson

Spending habits

Though their cap space has dwindled in recent years, the 49ers are a model franchise for contract management — arguably best in the NFL at forcing their preferred contract structure onto players. The strategy has allowed San Francisco to save millions in the event of injury or poor performance.

The Niners wisely attach large roster bonuses to most contracts, and the bonus is only earned if the player is active on Sunday. Each player is offered workout bonuses to encourage offseason participation. The team also relies on escalators and incentives to encourage better performance.

In general, the 49ers have shied away from setting top-market contract prices and have avoided the tease of reclamation players. They’ve instead focused on lower-upside (but more predictable) talent.

Looking ahead

One can’t help but look at the 49ers as a team in transition. Between roster decisions made in March and surprising retirements, the 2015 version will barely resemble the team that nearly won a Super Bowl a few years ago.

San Francisco has four players heading into a walk year. First is Aldon Smith, who recorded 33.5 sacks through his first two NFL seasons but has since slowed down. The 49ers already reworked his contract to reduce his salary by about $2 million and eliminate guarantees. He’s playing for a big contract this season; a contract that may not come from the 49ers.

Alex Boone last summer held out from training camp to earn a big extension. While they did not give him the big money (yet), the 49ers increased Boone’s compensation by about $2.5 million. They let Mike Iupati walk in free agency for the ability to consider an extension for Boone, which because of last year’s deal cannot occur until September.

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Davis and Anquan Boldin enter their final contract years in 2015, and the team is unlikely to do anything for them until after the season. Davis held out last year in hopes of a new deal, which the 49ers refused to do. The tight end proceeded to have the worst season of his career and needs a major rebound to secure any kind of meaningful contract. Boldin continues to play well, but he’ll be 35 this season. San Francisco would carry $2.7 million in dead money for 2016 if it fails to extend the veteran receiver.

Beyond the free agents, the 49ers will be focused on the performance of Kaepernick, who was signed to an incentive-laden $114 million contract last year. Kaepernick struggled last season, so the Niners signed speedster Torrey Smith in an attempt to take advantage of the quarterback’s strong arm. If the two fail to excel together, there will be rumblings about San Francisco moving on from Kaepernick and completely rebuilding.

Kaepernick is due $14.3 million in 2016, and the 49ers would gain $9.4 million in cap room if they traded or released him next season. He would have nice value around the league due to the scarcity of talent at the position (as would Smith).

If things go further south this year in San Francisco, both moves — dealing Kaepernick and/or Smith — should be considered as a fast-track to rebuild through the draft. If the 49ers bring everybody back next season, though, what you see in 2015 is likely what you'll see for the next three years.

Jason Fitzgerald

Jason Fitzgerald is an NFL salary expert and contributor for Sporting News. Read more of his writing at OverTheCap.com and follow him on Twitter: @Jason_OTC.