I've always said that life in the NFL is a roller coaster. The 49ers have ridden those ups and downs as much as any team in recent years.
San Francisco was a dominant franchise in the 1980s with four Super Bowl victories and still successful in the 1990s, when it added its fifth championship in 1994. Then, from 2003-10, San Francisco hit the skids and missed the playoffs eight straight seasons.
Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh arrived as the general manager/head coach tandem in 2011, and the 49ers flourished again through excellent drafting and great coaching. They returned to elite status with three straight trips to the NFC title game and a Super Bowl appearance in 2012. Then mistake after mistake compounded, and the 49ers once again fell to the bottom of the NFL.
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As a former GM, I understand and appreciate the difficulty of staying on top for an extended period in a system that works against the best teams (draft positions, schedule, contracts, cap issues, etc.). But teams cannot afford to make so many poor decisions in a short period of time — exactly what the 49ers did in 2014 and ’15.
Mistake No. 1 was allowing the team to get old and losing great players to retirement (Patrick Willis and Justin Smith) and free agency (Frank Gore, Mike Iupati and Michael Crabtree) without having solid young players in the pipeline ready to step up. It must be said that some of the departures were unexpected, such as excellent young linebacker Chris Borland retiring after one season due to concussion concerns. Starting tackle and former first rounder Anthony Davis decided not to play last season in order to "let his brain and body heal." The loss of star pass rusher Aldon Smith to suspensions and eventual release also set the defense back.
Mistake No. 2 was letting an elite coach in Harbaugh get in a distracting battle of wills with Baalke and losing him to Michigan. That was a tough one for 49ers CEO Jed York to arbitrate, especially with Harbaugh's ego overinflated after such great success in his first three seasons. But it would have served the 49ers better if they had worked it out so that their successful GM and coach had been able to continue working together.
Mistake No. 3 was making a poor head coaching hire in Jim Tomsula. Granted, he came into a tough situation, but the former 49ers defensive line coach could not get quarterback Colin Kaepernick on track and made the switch to an inferior player in Blaine Gabbert. Tomsula's firing after just one season confirmed that York and Baalke believed he was in over his head, and they made the right move by bringing in an established head coach with a successful track record (other than his final season in Philly) in Chip Kelly.
Mistake No. 4 was mismanaging the most important position. Kaepernick was deemed worthy of a $21 million-per-year deal following the 2013 season (although without significant long term guarantees). He looked like a sure thing after his Super Bowl run and was still productive in Harbaugh's final year (’14). But 2015 was a disaster, as the 49ers coaches could not get him to play to his anticipated level and benched him for Gabbert before exiling him to injured reserve with a shoulder problem.
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In the midst of all the mistakes, the 49ers lost their identity, which under Harbaugh was a physical, power football team with a strong running game, a multi-dimensional QB and a fierce, hard-hitting defense. At their peak in 2011-13, the Niners were an in-your-face, confident bunch. But they lost their swagger over the past two seasons.
Into the fray steps Kelly. I see the 49ers led by Kelly as one of the more interesting teams to watch in 2016. The biggest question is whether Kelly can make a reclamation project out of Kaepernick, who would seem to be a great fit for the high-tempo, unpredictable offense that can accommodate his running and passing skills.
How much damage has been done to Kaepernick's psyche, from the on-field problems last year to trade demands that didn't materialize and now a battle with Gabbert for the starting QB job? Kelly also praises sixth round draftee Jeff Driskell, the former Florida quarterback who wound up at Louisiana Tech. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ running game needs Carlos Hyde and the offensive line to step up to take pressure off the quarterbacks.
On defense, the 49ers still have some top players, such as Pro Bowl linebacker Navorro Bowman and the incoming top draft pick, defensive end DeForest Buckner. Overall, the defense has to improve dramatically for the 49ers to regain their footing in the tough NFC West.
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It won't be easy for San Francisco to return to playoff status — they play in the NFL's best division. Seattle and Arizona are two of the five best teams in the NFL and should remain formidable. The Rams could arrive as a contender at their new home in Los Angeles if top pick Jared Goff plays well alongside Todd Gurley and a stout defense.
If the 49ers do get back to being competitive and playoff-worthy, will Kelly then make the same mistakes he did in Philadelphia? That wound up being disastrous for the Eagles, and Kelly taking on the GM role cost him his job.
It will be fascinating to watch it all unfold as the 49ers try to ride back to the top of the NFL roller coaster.
Jeff Diamond is the former president of the Titans and the former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
