The NFL Combine has come and gone, and it’s time to update the Mock Draft. While the performances in Indianapolis didn’t do much in terms of moving player grades, it did wonders to determine who teams value, what positions they’ll target in free agency and who they’ll consider on draft day.
The Texans covet a quarterback first overall, Johnny Manziel is still falling, and the draft’s offensive tackle value continues to stay high.
1. Houston Texans: Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
As of now, this pick is down to three players: Jadeveon Clowney, Johnny Manziel and Bortles. Clowney is the best player in the draft, and if the team can address quarterback in free agency, he’ll be the odds-on favorite. Manziel would strictly be an owner pick, something that seems unlikely but can never be ruled out. Bortles is the best fit for Bill O’Brien’s offense, and for now, O'Brien has the most control in the Texans’ front office.
2. Atlanta Falcons (from St. Louis Rams via Washington Redskins): Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
It’s not always good to project trades, but there are some indications that there may be a loose trade agreement between the Rams and Falcons if Clowney is available at No. 2. The Rams will still be able to get a top offensive tackle with the sixth pick, and the Falcons get the best player in the draft while filling easily their biggest need.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
Bridgewater has been the apple of the Jaguars’ eye since the middle of last season, and it’s highly unlikely they will pass on him. He’s the best quarterback in this class, and he’ll do wonders to accelerate the team's rebuilding.
4. Cleveland Browns: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
This is the expected landing spot for Johnny Manziel, but there is enough speculation that he will take a legitimate fall on draft day. The Browns, therefore, will look for an impact player at No. 4. Watkins and Josh Gordon will make any quarterback successful.
5. Oakland Raiders: Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
The Raiders would love to get their hands on Teddy Bridgewater, but it would be a major surprise if he lasted until No. 5. The Raiders need instant starters and impact players, and Mack fills a void at linebacker. With the best offensive tackles and Johnny Manziel potentially on the board, the Raiders could have some interest from teams looking to trade up.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Atlanta Falcons): Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
The dream scenario for the Rams, if they trade down, is that they’ll potentially have their pick of tackles. Robinson was our top tackle before the Combine, and he displayed his remarkable upside in Indianapolis.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State
Carr above Johnny Manziel? Seems crazy. But Manziel isn’t a fit for every team, so just because a team needs a young passer doesn’t mean it will be interested in him. Derek Carr and new Bucs offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford have a very strong connection. Carr is very underappreciated at this point, though he’s still more of a second-round value.
8. Minnesota Vikings: Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
Finding a home for Barr isn’t easy because he’s such an unfinished product. However, his talent is undeniable on film, and in the top of the first round, teams generally prefer upside whenever possible. For the Vikings, they need some young pass rushers, and Barr has the versatility to play defensive end or linebacker situationally.
9. Buffalo Bills: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
It’s a testament to the strength of this draft class that Matthews could slide all the way down to No. 9. The Bills don’t have a glaring need at offensive tackle, but finding a franchise tackle who grades out equally, if not better, than the top two picks in last year’s draft is something on which they can’t pass.
10. Detroit Lions: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
After cutting Louis Delmas, safety emerged as arguably the Lions' biggest need. Top 10 is a little high for any safety in this class, though, and the Lions could consider trading down if there are any suitors. Still, if they can get Clinton-Dix (or Calvin Pryor), they can quickly shore up a major need.
11. Tennessee Titans: Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville
The Titans have drafted well enough in recent years to be set at most positions. The one hole they need to fill most is safety, where they could use a versatile secondary weapon. Enter Pryor, who can build on an already strong, young defense.
12. New York Giants: Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
Deciding between a linebacker (a longtime need) or a top offensive tackle will be tough, especially with Lewan on the board at this point. But with Will Beatty struggling as much as he did this year and David Diehl retiring, Lewan is too talented to pass on.
13. St. Louis Rams: C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama
Ideally, one of the top two safeties in this class would be here and the Rams could fill their two biggest needs in the top 15 of a loaded draft. However, with Clinton-Dix and Pryor gone at this point, Mosley can give this team a perfect set of young linebackers to play behind one of the best young defensive lines in the NFL.
14. Chicago Bears: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State
The Bears made it clear at the Combine that they’ll be focused on defense in this draft, and they could use help at all three levels. Dennard, Aaron Donald and C.J. Mosley all make sense for Chicago, and it’ll likely take the best player on their board among those three. Dennard gets the nod for now, and he’ll be the team's long-term shutdown cornerback.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame
The Steelers would certainly like it if one of the top offensive tackles fell to them, but it seems increasingly unlikely after the Combine. Nix, on the other hand, can add to an aging defensive line that could certainly use a new nose tackle. Nix is the best nose tackle in the class and has Pro Bowl upside.
16. Dallas Cowboys: Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Safety or defensive line: Those are the clear positions of need for Dallas. I’d guess they double up at both positions in this draft. With the two top safeties gone and the best defensive tackle/inside speed rusher in this class available, Donald seems like a no-brainer here. Do not rule out Johnny Manziel if he starts to slip, however.
17. Baltimore Ravens: Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
The Ravens are set to let Ed Dickson walk, and with the value they’ve placed on tight ends in the past, they won’t be OK with just having Dennis Pitta at the position. Insert Ebron, who could go much higher in the draft, to fill the feature tight end role as well as provide Joe Flacco with a big target that he’s missed since the team traded Anquan Boldin.
18. New York Jets: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
Despite the receiver class being remarkably deep and teams expecting to wait at the position because grades are so similar, Evans likely earned a top 20 grade from most teams after his impressive Combine workout. The Jets want to support and develop Geno Smith, and giving him an Alshon Jeffery/Jimmy Graham-type weapon can only help.
19. Miami Dolphins: Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame
Regardless of whether the Dolphins make a move in free agency to fill their gaping offensive needs, they still should address the tackle position early and often in the draft. They’ll need to move up eight or nine spots if they hope to get one of the top three tackles. They likely could stick at No. 19 and draft Martin, who can be an immediate starter at right tackle and, at worst, could be a near-elite guard.
20. Arizona Cardinals: Dee Ford, OLB, Auburn
The Cardinals don’t have a great need for a pass rusher, but Ford is too good of a value to pass on at this point. Also, the Cardinals don’t have clearly big needs, especially since coach Bruce Arians has gotten more than anyone would have expected out of his makeshift offensive line.
21. Green Bay Packers: Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
The Packers could look a variety of ways with this pick, with tight end, defensive tackle and cornerback being the most likely. Among those three positions, Amaro is the best talent on the board, and he can fill the role that Jermichael Finley was in last season.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois
Philadelphia needs help across the defense. Pass rusher and nose tackle are intriguing options, but it’s more likely Chip Kelly will try to shore up the secondary. Brandon Boykin is a plus starter on the outside, and they’ve already invested in other cornerbacks. Ward can play strong safety, free safety and cornerback and thus can provide tremendous value as a rookie.
23. Kansas City Chiefs: Odell Beckham, WR, LSU
Sammy Watkins is the best receiver in this class, and Mike Evans and Florida State’s Kelvin Benjamin get a majority of the attention, but Beckham could easily leave this class as the draft’s top receiver. Beckham fits perfectly into what Andy Reid wants to do on offense.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State
After a highly impressive Combine, Shazier is an immediate option in the late first round for teams looking for 4-3 linebacker help. After drafting so well the past few years, the Bengals have few needs, but linebacker is one of them, so adding talent a like Shazier is a strong possibility.
25. San Diego Chargers: Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
Phillip Rivers had a strong rebound season with new head coach Mike McCoy, and the offense is in good position for the future. The defense still needs ample help, however, especially in the secondary with the pass rush. Gilbert could go as high as the top 15; if San Diego can snag him here, it would get an instant upgrade at a key position.
26. Cleveland Browns (from Indianapolis Colts): Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
Manziel could go a lot higher, and most reports are that he won’t leave the top 10. The Browns at No. 4 are the most obvious fit, but if there are signs that Manziel will fall on draft day, they’d be wise to consider waiting on him in the mid- to late first round. The Browns need a franchise quarterback, and Manziel, with time, can fill that void.
27. New Orleans Saints: Jeremiah Attaochu, OLB, Georgia Tech
Rob Ryan got the most out of his pass rushers last season, but New Orleans' defensive coordinator needs help for the future if the unit hopes to take the next step. Attaochu hasn’t had a great postseason, but his athletic upside and raw pass-rushing ability are too intriguing for teams to pass on late in the first round.
28. Carolina Panthers: Marqise Lee, WR, USC
If the Panthers hope to take the next step on offense with Cam Newton, they’ll need to find a new No. 1 receiver. Steve Smith’s Carolina career is nearly finished. Lee would be a top 10 prospect in most drafts, but thanks to an elite top 20 crop of talent and a loaded receiver class this year, Lee could fall right into the Panthers’ lap on draft day.
29. San Francisco 49ers: Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
After drafting for straight value last year, the 49ers can afford to draft the best player available again because a majority of their starters are still in the prime of their careers. Two years ago, Aldon Smith provided this team with an elite defensive talent; Ealy can do the same.
30. New England Patriots: Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State
Vince Wilfolk is in recovery now, and based on his injury history and age he can’t be expected to produce for the long term. Always proactive in the draft, the Patriots likely will target his replacement. There are questions about Jernigan's endurance, but he has enough upside as a nose tackle to be a developmental starter at a key position in New England's defense.
31. Denver Broncos: Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
Denver added to its defense last offseason but it still needs ample help across the depth chart, especially in the secondary. Fuller’s draft value is gaining steam after a strong Combine. He's a worthwhile late first-round option for teams in need of secondary help.
32. Seattle Seahawks: Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
The Seahawks have drafted very well in recent years; that success was showcased in the Super Bowl as Seattle won with one of the NFL’s youngest starting rosters. The Hawks have the luxury of being able to address whichever position has the most upside. Finding a defensive tackle to replace Red Bryant makes the most sense here, and the high-upside Hageman is the best value at this pick.
Scouting analysis provided by Optimum Scouting