Why Jets WR Garrett Wilson is being compared to Panthers WR

Tyler Greenawalt

Why Jets WR Garrett Wilson is being compared to Panthers WR  image

The Jets hype train heading into 2023 took a brief hiatus before returning to full-steam ahead for 2024.

With Aaron Rodgers back and fully recovered from his Week 1 torn Achilles injury, the Jets have a lot of positive flowing with the 2024 regular season a few months away. Rodgers' return coupled with wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running back Breece Hall and new additions Mike Williams and Malachi Corley could be huge for the Jets' postseason chances.

Wilson should be especially exciting, as this would be his first season with a bonafide star under center after playing the past two years with a litany of less-than-desirable quarterbacks like Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and more. However, Wilson's advanced analytics aren't that favorable unless Rodgers' presence completely elevates the wideouts play.

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Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points looked at receivers' yards per catchable target versus their targets per route run to determine which wideouts are efficient and which are not. Wilson fell into the latter category of, as Heath put it, "inefficient compilers."

This led fellow Fantasy Pros analyst Scott Barrett to write that Wilson has — analytically speaking — "just been 2020-2022 Diontae Johnson through this point in his career. Great separator, target hog. Nothing really to show for it."

The stats somewhat back this up. Through the past two seasons, Wilson wrack up 178 receptions on 315 targets for 2,145 total yards and seven touchdowns. He averaged 12.1 yards per reception, but only 6.8 yards per target.

Those numbers were slightly better than Johnson's during the stretch Barrett mentioned, as Johnson averaged 10.6 yards per reception and 6.4 yards per target. Coincidentally, Wilson's 6.8 yards per target tied with Johnson for the 41st out of 45 receivers with at least 100 receptions over the past two seasons. The 12.1 yards per reception ranked slightly higher than Johnson.

Now, the Johnson comparison doesn't make Wilson a bad wide receiver. Johnson, who was traded from the Steelers to the Panthers this offseason, has been one of the better possession receivers in the NFL recently. However, this analysis waters down the hype of Wilson heading into the 2024 season with a healthy Rodgers under center.

Wilson's awful quarterback play through the first two years of his NFL career cannot be discounted and likely played a considerable role in his production. There's no telling what Wilson would have been in 2023 if Rodgers had played. The same could be the case in 2024 with Rodgers.

However, the realistic juxtaposition of Wilson's advanced metrics paints a picture where he is closer to a quality pass-catcher than a superstar wide receiver. We'll see which assessment is right in 2024.

Tyler Greenawalt

Tyler Greenawalt Photo

 

Tyler Greenawalt is a contributing writer for The Sporting News after stops at Yahoo Sports, USA Today Sports and Turner Sports. He’s worked in written, video, social media and augmented reality content since he graduated from Syracuse University in 2014. His favorite teams – the New York Jets, Orlando Magic and Tottenham Hotspur – always find new and exciting ways to disappoint him, and he consistently questions his fandom. You can follow his bad sports takes at @TyGreen14 on X.