The Minnesota Vikings are in transition right now. They have moved on from quarterback Kirk Cousins and the roster has seen a shift over the last two seasons. Only 12 players remain from the Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer era, which means that we can fully judge the direction of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O'Connell's Vikings.
The quarterback position is going to be a major focus of that direction. They identified J.J. McCarthy to be the future of the franchise at quarterback and he is working on things during practice, mainly with his mechanics. However, he isn't likely to be the starting quarterback in week one. Things are trending to have Sam Darnold as the week one starter against the New York Giants.
What if Sam Darnold is great for the Vikings?
The question needs to be asked about Darnold for the 2024 season.
What if he's great?
When you have a talented, but inconsistent quarterback like Darnold, it's a question that deserves some exploration. He was selected third overall by the New York Jets in 2018 because of his immense talent. Things haven't worked out so far for Darnold, but it's not because he doesn't have arm talent.
There are situations in the past where a team has spent a high pick on a quarterback only to see the incumbent thrive and make the decision difficult for the organization, but the best comparison is the 2004 San Diego Chargers.
How Drew Brees relates to Sam Darnold
This is an interesting comparison because Brees is going to be a Hall of Famer likely earning enshrinement on the first ballot. If you remember the start of Brees' career, it wasn't great. A second-round pick in 2001, Brees struggled the first three years of his career but blossomed in 2004 after the Chargers selected Phillip Rivers.
That left them with a conundrum for 2005. Do they keep Brees or give the reins to the fourth overall pick from 2004? I dove into that idea on The Real Forno Show.
"I want to relate it to a scenario that happened with the Chargers 2001 NFL draft. They had the first overall pick and hey weren't 100% sold on Michael Vick. Now, in today's day and age, I think everybody would have been sold on Michael Vick the player, but 2001 it was a very, very different league so they traded back to fifth overall and they got a decent package and then they took LaDanian Tomlinson and with the first pick in the second round, they took Drew Brees. And Brees we know and he's going to end up being in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but at that point, Brees his first couple years he was okay and very up and down. And in the 2004 NFL Draft, they had the first overall pick again they took Eli Manning, traded for Philip Rivers, got extra draft capital from the Giants and the rest is history. So 2004 Drew Brees is in a contract year, balls out and I believe he made the Pro Bowl so now the Chargers are looking at themselves okay. We've got essentially the first overall pick here because that's the pick they had Rivers was taken for do we go with Rivers or do we keep Drew Brees after he just absolutely balled out and he looks to be like a legitimate quarterback. What do we do? And I think that scenario is something that you can kind of look at for a comparison point if darnold just all of the sudden takes off because he just turned 27 years old."
The Chargers ended up giving Brees the franchise tag for the 2005 season and the decision ended up being made for them when he shredded his shoulder trying to recover a fumble against the Denver Broncos. Rivers took the job and blossomed into a potential Hall of Fame quarterback.
Would the Vikings be willing to do the same for Darnold? This year's franchise tag for quarterbacks was $38.3 million with their projection for 2025 from Over The Cap being $42.16 million. Is that worth it for Darnold to stick around with McCarthy in the fold? They will have the projected cap space to make it work, but wanting to make it work is an entirely different question that we won't know the answer to unless the situation arises.
If he's good enough in 2025 to warrant that, using the franchise tag to either keep him or try to tag and trade for a second-round pick could be worth pursuing. Now, this outcome isn't likely, but it's good to look at the possibility because Darnold is going to be in a phenomenal situation for the first time.
The other element here is the development of McCarthy. He could end up sitting all of 2024 with Darnold in the fold and because the Vikings want to be careful with his development. If he is ready to start in 2025, that could be a determining factor in this entire situation. Rivers was ready for the Chargers, but there wasn't quite the pressure that O'Connell and the Vikings will likely face with McCarthy.
There is a chance of a renaissance for Darnold, but it's not the most likely scenario to keep him in 2025. However, it's always good to look ahead at different outcomes.
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