There is a lot of discussion about regression with Minnesota Vikings second-year wide receiver Jordan Addison going into 2024. Why is that discussion happening? It's mostly coming from fantasy analysts discussing underlying metrics.
Jordan Addison had the best possible run out for Tds in his rookie season and it's helping to cover up alot of BIG WORRIES
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 23, 2024
Last year among 81 qual WRs
(per @FantasyPtsData)
15th in EZ targets
Tied for the fourth-most rec tds (with ARSB) behind only Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, &…
In the world of fantasy football, underlying metrics like yards per route run are the best to project out future success when it comes to stats. Numbers like touchdowns aren't because they are very volatile. When Calvin Johnson set the record for most receiving yards in a season, he was tackled inside the five yard line multiple times and caught just four touchdown passes.
The difference between looking at underlying metrics for your projections might work somewhat for fantasy football, but it doesn't translate 1:1 in reality.
Jordan Addison primed for 2024 breakout
What the analytical data that fantasy football analysts use doesn't have is year-over-year growth and it can lack the proper context. Why were some of Addison's metrics so low? He did have to play seven weeks as the WR1 without Justin Jefferson. That completely shifted coverages across the board and made things more difficult for him. Even with his success, Addison wasn't ready for the role of WR1 and that's okay! He was a rookie.
The splits with and without Jefferson show that Addison wasn't ready for primetime.
| Targets | Catches | Yards | YPR | Touchdowns | |
| With Jefferson (10 games) | 44 | 31 | 430 | 13.87 | 6 |
| Without Jefferson (7 games, 3 quarters) | 64 | 39 | 481 | 12.33 | 4 |
Addison saw significantly more targets due to Jefferson being out and his efficiency shrunk due to the context of those targets: more difficult coverage and less open space to work with.
We also have relatively even splits both with Kirk Cousins and the slew of backups that started the final half of the season.
| Targets | Catches | Yards | YPR | Touchdowns | |
| With Cousins (8 games) | 52 | 36 | 482 | 13.38 | 7 |
| Without Cousins (9 games) | 56 | 34 | 429 | 12.61 | 3 |
Overall, this data shows us that Addison's impact didn't waver much with the significant changes. Yes, his targets went up without Jefferson. However, that's to be expected when your top pass catcher is out. These numbers are overall good for Addison who showed consistency despite the circumstances, which is good for a rookie.
Addison isn't a rookie anymore and has had a full offseason to prepare for his second year. All reports are that Addison appears stronger and thicker while maintaining his explosiveness during the offseason program with the Vikings.
"Jordan Addison had as good of an offseason program as really you can ask for," coach Kevin O'Connell said. "[He is] a guy that had a ton of success in Year 1. And really, from a standpoint of getting a little stronger, getting a little bit more comfortable playing through contact and still playing with that great burst and transition that he has, you saw some real growth there [this spring]."
When you want to project out in the future, growth year-over-year during the offseason shows a lot and something the underlying metrics can't tell you. ESPN's Kevin Seifert collected some data from Elias Sports Bureau that highlights how good Addison's rookie season was.
He was one of four players in modern NFL history to record at least 70 receptions, 900 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns in his rookie season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The others were Bill Groman (1960), Odell Beckham Jr. (2014) and Ja'Marr Chase (2021).
Chase and Addison benefited from 17-game seasons, compared to 16 or 14 in earlier eras, and filtering his production on a per-game basis widens the company they joined from that perspective. They are among 29 players, many of whom did not play full seasons, who have averaged at least four receptions, 50 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game in the past 64 years, less than one every other season per Elias.
Absolutely impressive numbers from Addison, especially considering that he didn't have any real consistency with Jefferson and Cousins each missing a multitude of games. Being able to spend the offseason getting his body right and learning from his rookie season will be a massive impact.
There is also a unique trend that Pro Football Focus' Steve Palazzoro identified where Addison's presence has brought out the best in his quarterbacks.
JJ McCarthy next? https://t.co/2lech6Mfy4
— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) June 24, 2024
Palazzolo mentioned McCarthy, which will likely be the thing in 2025. However, that is likely going to be Sam Darnold. Consistency at quarterback is going to matter and it's not worth getting sucked into the regression discussion. Addison's game is ready to take a step forward in 2024, even with a likely downgrade at quarterback.
Will the stats be the same? Certainly not but that doesn't mean they are bound to get worse. Development is real and needs to be taken into account.
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