Since Aaron Donald's retirement, the Rams have been heavily linked to a defensive lineman in mock drafts that would step in to help replace Donald. In my last mock draft roundup, Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II was the second-most picked prospect for LA, with many of these mocks citing their need to replace Donald as the rationale.
Is this the smart play for the Rams? I personally don't believe it makes sense. Aaron Donald is irreplaceable and his absence will *force* the Rams to shift their defensive personnel and construction. Forcing a defensive tackle in round 1 isn't going to be able to replicate the same success the Rams had in recent years with Donald, and especially doesn't make sense with their current roster. Let me explain:
Their Aaron Donald replacement is already on the roster
I'm not saying Kobie Turner will be the next Aaron Donald or anything as hyperbolic as that. What I am saying is that the *role* that Donald played last year is what Kobie Turner feels likely to do. Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic revealed in an article interviewing Rams GM Les Snead that Kobie Turner "could take on more three-technique snaps" after playing a sizeable amount of snaps as the "nose" next to Donald last year.
That approach worked with Donald regularly occupying multiple blockers, but without Donald, it's not as replicable. As talented as Turner is, he is sub-300 pounds and has very short arms (31 3/8" at his Pro Day). Turner's skillset is better rushing the passer than stopping the run, as evidenced by his tremendous rookie season where he led all rookies in sacks. This lends itself well to his projected new role as the three-technique. I won't go into super-heavy detail breaking down the specifics of that role, but it can more or less be summarized as a primarily pass-rushing role.
Turner's strengths as a pass rusher and weaknesses against the run are further emphasized by his role last year. Turner would come off the field regularly when the team would line up in their base 3-down looks, being replaced by Jonah Williams or Larrell Murchison. He would enter when the Rams got into their sub-packages and was nearly a full-time starter in that role.
Turner moving over to the three-technique opens up his previous spot, playing as the 1T/nose tackle or rotating as a base end when the Rams went into their "3-3-5" looks, a front that has been confirmed to be staying under new defensive coordinator Chris Shula. The Rams re-signed Larrell Murchison to help shore up an end spot, and there is hope for Desjuan Johnson to step up and help fill that rotation as well, but a gap does remain that the Rams would be wise to address. What *specifically* should they look for, though?
When the Rams get into their base 3-down looks, Bobby Brown III is their typical nose tackle, with Donald and one of Williams/Murchison/Turner usually flanking him. Brown is a solid run defender and played well there last year, but rarely saw action in sub-packages. Brown is entering a contract year but he should remain penciled in as the starter, durability aside. The Rams' typical base looks, for a quick visual, look something like this using their current roster:
DE/4i: Turner
NT/0T: Brown III
DE/4i: Murchison/Johnson
and their sub-package two-down looks:
3T: Turner
1T: Murchison (?)
This is assuming that the Rams will be more comfortable with Turner's run defense in their base looks next year, something Snead said in the aforementioned interview with The Athletic will "put a lot more pressure on Kobie".
When the Rams won Super Bowl LVI, they had Greg Gaines playing their nose, rotating with Sebastian Joseph-Day, and A'Shawn Robinson occupying the other end/4i role opposite of Aaron Donald. Gaines' emergence inside combined with Robinson's ability to plug the run and occupy blockers allowed the Rams to get creative with Donald. Gaines would also play as the 1T in their sub-packages with Donald as the 3T. The Rams are missing both a Gaines, with his three-down ability, and a Robinson, with his two-gapping ability, on their roster. As stated above, Brown is a fine pure nose tackle for their base looks, but doesn't see much opportunity outside of that.
NFL Draft outlook
Some of the more draft-centered readers will point to the two players at the top of the DT class, being the previously mentioned Murphy and Illinois' Johnny Newton, as players who can fill this role. Indeed, Murphy often played over the A-gap in college and Newton was rather stout against double-teams throughout his career. Ask any analyst though, and many would agree that this isn't the ideal role for either player. Both Newton and Murphy are ideally suited to play the 3T role that Turner seems likely to occupy. These two players are capable of playing the role the Rams need, but they aren't best suited for it, and it's typically bad process to force that kind of fit early in the draft.
What about the potential about drafting one of these players and keeping Turner at the role he played last season? The idea does hold some merit, but the role Turner played as the 1T doesn't suit him. The Rams played him there as the best way to get both him and Donald on the field at the same time. Turner isn't best served taking on double teams, but rather in the pass-rushing role the Rams seem set to play him at.
Of course, you can't base your draft on just one player, but the Rams are rather loyal to their players and Turner is coming off of arguably the best rookie year for a Rams defender since Donald's back in 2014. There's no real reason to not view him as a building block for their defense.
Due to all of these factors, I don't believe the Rams should take a defensive tackle in the first round of this year's draft or seem likely to. I'm operating under the opinion that both Murphy and Newton will be the only DTs selected in round one, which feels likely at this stage. The Rams have other needs, and I believe most of the analysis sending one of these specific DTs to them is a tad lazy and is trying to force a replacement for Aaron Donald instead of focusing on the Rams' roster. Even in the second round, players like Michael Hall Jr. (Ohio State) or Braden Fiske (Florida State) aren't the kind of players the Rams need, once more being pass-rushers.
It's my opinion that the Rams are likely looking for more impact run defenders who can help rotate as base ends and also to play the 1T role in sub-packages *next* to Kobie Turner throughout this draft. Unfortunately, finding a true three-down guy who can handle that many roles is pretty rare. I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams opted to spend multiple picks on the defensive line to address both spots individually and help reinforce their depth up front.
If they do select one of Murphy or Newton, they aren't bad selections. The two are immensely talented and capable and would certainly be impactful players for the Rams. I would just argue that they aren't the best use of resources in this year's draft, given the Rams' needs, and feels more like trying to force a replacement instead of fully building out a roster and would have a cascade effect that would impact the rest of their roster.
I'd keep an eye on players like Clemson's Ruke Orhorhoro, Michigan's Kris Jenkins, LSU's Maason Smith, and potentially Oregon's Brandon Dorlus early on in the draft, and Baylor's Gabe Hall, Duke's DeWayne Carter, Florida State's Fabien Lovett, Northern Iowa's Khristian Boyd, and LSU's Jordan Jefferson later on throughout the draft.
There is always a caveat. The Rams operate to the beat of their own drum and I'm not in the room with them. They've certainly not drafted based on scheme fit plenty of times throughout Snead's tenure, and it wouldn't be the first time they didn't do what I believe they should do. If one of these defensive tackles are their best players available, they might just pull the trigger anyways and opt to figure it all out later. However, based on what we do know and/or can infer based on their current roster, I don't see that being their pick and they would be best suited looking elsewhere later in the draft.
It's impossible to plug-and-play a single player and completely replicate what Aaron Donald meant to the Rams' defense. His impact and ability filled the roles of multiple people, and the Rams have to adjust their roster construction to fill that.
