Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh was never going to be as aggressive on fourth-down decisions as Brandon Staley, but could that change as his team faces Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs?
Through the first three weeks of 2024, the Chargers are the only team in the NFL to not go for it on fourth down. The Chargers' defense, the opposing quarterbacks, and the score all contributed to the Chargers not needing to take a risk. The Chargers fell behind by 10 points late in the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but a fourth-and-24 situation with Justin Herbert, Joe Alt, and Rashawn Slater out erased any chance of them going for it.
The Chiefs are sixth in points per game this season, even while working through injuries on offense. 10th in overall EPA/Play is still by far the best offense Jesse Minter's defense has faced thus far, and they will have to do it without Joey Bosa and Derwin James Jr.
Patrick Mahomes & Rashee Rice (44-yd TD)
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 15, 2024
Mahomes has already thrown as many deep touchdown passes of 20+ air yards this season (2) as the previous two seasons combined (2). Between 2018-2021, Mahomes threw 44 deep touchdowns, second-most in that span.#CINvsKC | @Chiefs pic.twitter.com/9nIbe5Arwl
Jim Harbaugh's tenure with the San Francisco 49ers suggests the very conservative fourth down trend may break on Sunday. In each of Harbaugh's four years as head coach, the 49ers were 18th, 25th, 21st, and sixth in fourth downs per game. The generally middle-of-the-pack frequency indicates Harbaugh will go for it as-needed and is neither too aggressive nor too timid overall. After three games in a row of avoiding a fourth down attempt, the Chargers might have to finally take a swing.
The Chargers are not projected to win this game, but they should be competitive early on. The Chargers are going to compete hard and play their division rivals as tough as they can. Whether that holds for an entire 60 minutes remains to be seen. If Justin Herbert plays, he will be limited and will likely endure several hits from Steve Spagnuolo's defense. Harbaugh may want to try and take advantage of as many early opportunities as he can to get ahead of the Chiefs before Patrick Mahomes and Reid figure out Minter's defensive game plan.
