The Los Angeles Chargers are 2-2 through their first four games of the season. After a strong 2-0 start, the Chargers lost their next two due to stronger opponents and a slew of unfortunate injuries at key positions. Are the Chargers on pace to pass their 2024 NFL win total of 8.5?
The Chargers' remaining schedule is as follows:
- Week 6: @ Denver Broncos
- Week 7: @ Arizona Cardinals
- Week 8: New Orleans Saints
- Week 9: @ Cleveland Browns
- Week 10: Tennessee Titans
- Week 11: Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 12: Baltimore Ravens
- Week 13: @ Atlanta Falcons
- Week 14: @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 15: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 16: Denver Broncos
- Week 17: @ New England Patriots
- Week 18: @ Las Vegas Raiders
How are these teams perhaps different than how fans viewed them before the start of the season?
Teams that are better than expected
The Saints and Falcons are two teams that are performing above expectations. The Saints are fifth in offensive EPA/Play and fourth in EPA/Play, making one of the more balanced and dangerous teams in the league. The Falcons are 3-2 after a big win over the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football and are starting to gel into a strong offense. They have wins over the Eagles and Saints as is, and their close loss to the Kansas City Chiefs suggested they could hang with anyone.
Teams that aren't as strong as expected
The Bengals and Browns are, so far, not playing like the playoff contenders they were considered to be. The Bengals finally got a win after starting 0-3, but it came against the Carolina Panthers. The Browns are 31st in offensive EPA/Play with Nick Chubb still out and Deshaun Watson playing awful football. Both are dangerous teams, but they do not look as difficult a matchup as they did five weeks ago.
How the Chargers will fare given their start
The Chargers are an above-average team until their offense has a cleaner injury report and Greg Roman can get his system to function without repeat pre-snap penalties and blown blocking assignments. Jesse Minter's defense is outstanding and will keep them in most games.
Given the way the NFL has shaken out and how the Chargers have performed so far, I would predict the Chargers to finish with a 9-8 record. That is one game worse than I initially predicted them to finish, though if they emerge from the BYE with Justin Herbert, Joe Alt, Joey Bosa, and Rashawn Slater healthy then they could perform above that. Until the offense performs at a consistent level above their 23rd ranking behind the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers, this team is going to be middle-of-the-pack.
