The betting public is way down on the Jacksonville Jaguars following their disastrous showing on Monday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills.
Facing a must-win game in Week 4, should the Jaguars (0-3) really be underdogs by close to a touchdown entering a road matchup with their AFC South rival Houston Texans (2-1)?
The Jaguars enter the weekend as 6-point underdogs, per BetMGM, with the line moving a couple points in Houston’s favor following Jacksonville’s ugly, 47-10 loss at Buffalo. Folks are automatically fading Jacksonville right now. Trevor Lawrence is struggling, the defense is riddled with injuries, and the hot-seat meter has been turned up on head coach Doug Pederson.
But getting 6-plus points in a divisional game, the Jaguars are definitely the right side here.
The Texans lead the AFC South, but they’ve hardly resembled the team that won a playoff game in 2023. They edged the Colts 29-27 in Week 1, let rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and the Bears hang around way too long in an ugly, 19-13 win in Week 2, and got blasted by the Minnesota Vikings last week, 34-7.
Has this betting line shifted too far towards the home team? Here’s how the experts are approaching the game.
NFL ATS picks, predictions Week 4: Jaguars at Texans
- Vinnie Iyer: The Sporting News: Jaguars (+4.5)
“Trevor Lawrence will work to get the Jaguars more competitive opposite C.J. Stroud, but beyond their running game, they have some issues with identity and injuries. Stroud should finally see a secondary against which he can involve all three top wide receivers to make up for concerns in the running game. Lawrence digs deep to keep his team in it, but Stroud has too much around him.”
- Vic Tafur, The Athletic: Texans (-6.5)
“Who gets fired first? Doug Pederson, Matt Eberflus or Nick Sirianni? Pederson might not make it to a Week 6 matchup with Eberflus if he can’t at least put some points on the board and be competitive. The Jaguars split the two games with the Texans last season, despite C.J. Stroud having 645 yards passing and rushing, five touchdowns and no turnovers. Stroud should have another big day, as the Jaguars rank 29th in EPA per play (-0.11), EPA per drive (-0.68) and turnover margin (minus-3). Lost in the blowout loss to the Bills was how pass rusher Josh Allen had changed his name so as not to be confused with the Bills quarterback, and no one noticed Josh Hines-Allen’s one quarterback pressure and 3.8 percent pressure rate. This looks like a ninth straight loss for Trevor Lawrence, who joined Jim Plunkett as the only quarterbacks drafted No. 1 to have multiple losing streaks of eight or more games in their career. Lawrence ranks 26th in EPA per dropback (-0.18) and passer rating (75.1) and he looks beaten down, thanks to his offensive line and the weight of a now-even-more ridiculous $275 million extension in June.”
- Pete Prisco, CBSSports.com: Texans (-6.5)
“The Jaguars are 0-3 and coming off a horrible loss on Monday night, which means this is a short week for a team playing bad football. The Texans weren't good last week against the Vikings, but C.J. Stroud will bounce back here against a bad Jacksonville defense. Texans take it.”
- Kristopher Knox, Bleacher Report: Texans (-6)
"I don't love giving the Texans this many points with the way their offensive line is playing right now. There's a chance that Josh Hines-Allen wrecks Houston's game plan and gives Jacksonville a chance here — the Jags did win in Houston last November. However, I have a hard time seeing the Jaguars keeping this one close. They're a poorly coached team and have looked totally ill-prepared in their last two matchups. Another slow start will put immense pressure on Trevor Lawrence, who, right now, either doesn't trust what he's seeing or doesn't trust the plays that are being called."
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