The 2024 NFL Draft is upon us. We’ve ranked the players, mocked them and considered every variable. There’s only one thing left to do before we get to the actual draft, and that’s check and see what the analytics say on the Texans’ top few picks.
ESPN released its Draft Day Predictor, which should the statistical likelihood of each pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Texans have a few needs and two picks in the second round, meaning Houston could grab some quality starters on Day 2 if the team doesn't trade back up into the first round.
Here are the results.
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Texans top-5 projected prospects
Second round, Pick No. 42
- CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri
- DT Braden Fiske, Florida State
- LB Edgerrin Cooper, Texas A&M
- C Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
- CB Kamari Lassiter. Georgia
The analytics match up exactly with the Texans' needs and talent available with the first three listed prospects. Rakestraw Jr. is a first-round talent that could slide to Houston’s first selection due to past injuries and a lack of ball production. Fiske has been one of the darlings during the run-up to the draft and has a motor that teams will covet. Cooper is the top at the linebacker position and, like Rakestraw Jr., should be considered a first-round talent. There’s a falloff in talent after Cooper at the linebacker position. Any of those three selections would be home run picks for Houston
Powers-Johnson also displays first-round talent but the center position isn’t close to the same need as corner, defensive tackle and linebacker for the Texans. Lassiter has been mocked from anywhere around the early second round to as late as a Day 3 pick. Lassiter is far from the value presented by the other quartet of prospects listed on the list above him.
The first three players projected are all more than reasonable. Rakestraw Jr. and Cooper provide the most value and need with their selections, followed by Fiske.
Texans 2024 NFL Draft prospect targets: WR | RB | TE | OT | DB | DT | EDGE | LB
Second Round, Pick No. 59
- DL Kris Jenkins, Michigan
- CB Mike Sainristil, Michigan
- OG Cooper Beebe, Kansas State
- OG Christian Haynes, UConn
- DT Michael Hall Jr., Ohio State
The two guys that stick out on this list are Sainristil and Hall Jr. These two would be great selections with the Texans’ second pick in the second round depending on how the team uses it's first pick.
Hall Jr. may go earlier than No. 59 but if he did last until their second selection, it would make the move to pass on Fiske at No. 42 to go with Rakestraw Jr. or Cooper all the better. Sainristil may be off the board by the Texans’ second selection as well as he’s been projected to go anywhere from a top-40 pick to the middle of the third-round. Sainristil at pick No. 59 would go great with a Fiske or Cooper pick at No. 42 for the Texans.
Jenkins isn’t a great fit for the Texans as he’s more of a two-gap type of defensive player that should go to a 3-4 defense to play at defensive end. He would be a defensive tackle in a four-man front but is more stout against the run where the Texans are looking for one-gap penetrators. Beebe and Haynes are guards and don’t provide the value or need that the Texans are looking for with their second pick. If Houston goes to the offensive line early, it should be at the tackle position.
Third Round Pick No. 86
- CB Andre Phillips, Kentucky
- DT Brandon Dorlus, Oregon
- OL Mason McCormick, South Dakota State
- RB Trey Benson, Florida State
- OL Zak Zinter, Michigan
It was interesting to see that the predictor had one name far ahead of anyone else: Kentucky cornerback Andru Phillips. If the Texans pass on Rakestraw Jr. at No. 42 and Sainristil at No. 59, Phillips would be one of a few names that Houston would consider at the cornerback position in Round 3. Next closest to Phillips was defensive lineman Brandon Dorlus. Dorlus would be similar to a younger version of Denico Autry in Houston, if the Texans passed on Fiske and Hall Jr. Dorlus would play some at defensive tackle while also being able to play on the edge as well.
