Put bluntly: The Texans' trade for wide receiver Stefon Diggs signifies Houston’s desire to compete for a championship in 2024.
The arrival of Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans, as well as the selection of C.J. Stroud in the 2023 NFL draft completely changed the makeup of an entire franchise and the trajectory of its timeline. The Texans have never loaded up a team before, until now. Houston signed Danielle Hunter and traded for Joe Mixon and Diggs, after turning over every rock in free agency to try and build a roster that can compete with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Every move being made is with the thought of securing a championship as soon as possible. The Texans know they have a small window to be able to splurge and build a team that’s capable of winning the toughest games against the best competition. These moves also set the Texans up for financial flexibility in two years — just in time for potential long-term extensions for their best young players.
Here’s how the Texans’ big swings this spring will affect the 2024 season and beyond.
Stroud, Anderson and Stingley future contracts
Houston drafted Stroud, Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr. with top-three picks in the past two NFL drafts. They all are coming off of stellar years, too. If the trio stays healthy and on their current production and developmental trajectory, Houston will have a good problem on its hands when the time comes to extend them in the future. Those impending contract extensions will restrict the team’s ability to add talent around them, though.
This is putting the cart before the horse, so to speak, but when constructing rosters in the now, you also have to think about the future.
Stroud put the Texans within two games of the Super Bowl. Now, with a roster loaded around him, Stroud could put himself on a Russell Wilson-type path with a Super Bowl appearance in his second year and a Super Bowl win in his third. That would likely lead to a payday after Stroud's third season in 2026 — a trend that already exists after Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow all received their first major contract extension before the start of their fourth year in the NFL.
The same can be said for Anderson, who was the only player in the NFL who ranked top-three in pass rush win rate and run stop win rate, per ESPN. Myles Garrett was the closest to him as he in pass rush win rate and seventh in run stop win rate. If he continues to play at this level, how long will Anderson Jr. accept playing under a rookie wage?
Houston may get Anderson Jr. to wait until after his fourth year but that too would be a hard sell if he’s still performing as one of the best at his position. Maybe Stingley Jr. will play on a fifth-year option in 2026 to kick the can down the road if he continues to battle yearly injuries. These are good problems to have but they are financial problems when considering the limitations to future roster building.
This isn’t anything Caserio doesn’t already know. He sees the entire landscape years in advance. He’ll still structure rosters to be competitive with Stroud far after his payday. But despite them saying that they don’t believe in windows, Houston has a two-year window to go all-in. The years are 2024 and 2025.
How Diggs’ restructure plays into this plan
The Texans voided the final three years of Diggs' contract after the trade and moved up his remaining guaranteed money from 2025 to this season. He’ll become a free agent at the end of the season.
He’s not the only Texans receiver set to possibly test the market after 2024 as there are four others at the position that will also see their contracts expire following this year: Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Noah Brown and Steven Sims. Woods may not even make it to the 2024 season because of the near-$5 million cap savings Houston would create with his release.
Collins is the biggest question mark, as there were rumors he could receive an extension before the end of his contract and even before the 2024 season. However, Houston would be wise to wait until after the year after the Diggs restructure.
If Houston paid Collins now, the Texans would save millions if he were to have another stellar year and command even more money. However, Collins has averaged four missed games a year over his three NFL seasons. In 2023, he was one of the better receivers in the league but if the team has concerns about him being a “one-year wonder” or injury risk, making him prove it again would be wise.
So the combination of both Diggs' and Collins' impending free agency after 2024 puts them both in “prove-it” years as it currently stands. The Texans aren't going to sign both players to long-term deals, so they'll get to let both play out and pay the one that performs in 2024. Is keeping Diggs over Collins due to talent, despite age, a crazy thought? The opposite is true if the Texans wanted to keep the younger Collins over Diggs after this season.
Why would Diggs want to restructure his deal? More than likely, Diggs wasn’t going to want to play in his 30s on a contract that doesn’t protect him financially — there was no guaranteed money left after this season except the extra $3.5 million. So the Texans did what they had to do to acquire the player and do right by him.
On the flip side, the Texans aren’t eligible for a compensatory pick if Diggs were to leave in free agency after the year because of the nature of his contract restructure. However, Caserio effectively already secured his compensatory pick(s) via the trade as Houston received the sixth-round pick this year (No. 189) and a fifth-round pick in 2025 from the Bills.
The long and short of it is that the Texans know they can go all-in during the 2024 season and then try again during the 2025 season. But the bills are coming due shortly after that with Stroud, Anderson and Stingley, and it won’t catch Caserio and company by surprise as he’s already planned for the landscape to come because of these moves with Diggs and Collins.
Texans contracts in 2026 and beyond
Caserio has set up most of the Texans’ veterans' contracts to have outs built into them for the 2026 league year to give him the flexibility to move on from any high-dollar player who shows a decline in play or suffers injury.
The Texans can move on from Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard, Dalton Schultz, Shaq Mason, Joe Mixon, Ka’imi Fairbairn and/or Azeez Al-Shaair in 2026, which would lead to massive cap savings. Either by trading, cuts or releases with post-June 1st designations in 2026, Houston could save around $70-100 million in salary cap space. The entire group won't be cut/traded but their contracts are built with the ability to do so if need be for the youngsters’ paydays coming due.
This sets up Caserio to re-evaluate the team as a whole in 2026 with the ability to lock down Stroud, Anderson and Stingley long-term. Whether or not any of the players he signed in 2024 will be on the team in two years will all depend on how these next two seasons go.
Either way, Houston is in good hands with Caserio.
