Night one of the 2024 NFL draft came and went without the Texans making a selection.
There were reports Houston made attempts to get back into the first round, but nothing transpired. The Texans are scheduled to pick 10th on Friday with the No. 42 pick overall. There are several prospects Houston could trade up for, stand firm or even trade back a few spots and land, depending on how they have them all rated.
Here’s a look back at what the Texans may have been considering with their attempted trade attempts, along with a preview on what they could be discussing the night before making their first selection in this year’s draft.
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Why Texans didn't trade up
The draft started with 14 consecutive offensive players being selected as teams forced the need at quarterback while mixing in the top receivers and offensive linemen along with tight end Brock Bowers.
By the 15th pick, the draft swayed with the selection of the top defensive tackle, Byron Murphy II, followed by a run on the top edge prospects with more offensive linemen mixed in. If you weren’t a team needing to draft a quarterback, offensive lineman, wide receiver or edge player early, the draft unfolded perfectly.
That’s the exact situation that the Texans found themselves in on Thursday. At around the 20th pick, reports started leaking out again that the Texans were working the phones to try and get back up into the first round. We’re left to speculate the article of their desire as the deal didn’t come to fruition.
At that time in the draft, no cornerbacks had been picked — which is a top need for Houston. But even still, the Texans may have viewed the value of getting the top prospect at the position at that point of the draft as too high to make the move. One of the two guys listed under the “Dream Scenario” players the Texans could trade up for was the top cornerback in the draft, Quinyon Mitchell. That sounds like the most obvious player Houston would have targeted, but the Eagles were able to select at pick No. 22, which was a couple picks after the reports came out that the Texans were working to get back into the first round. Houston couldn’t get a deal finalized and the rumors died down immediately after the Eagles took Mitchell with their selection at No. 22.
It’s just speculation based on reading tea leaves but it seems to add up. If they weren’t after Mitchell, there’s a chance it may have been cornerback Terrion Arnold, who many had as their top cornerback in this class. Arnold went two picks after Mitchell. They may have had both rated high and tried to get in to ensure getting one. If it wasn’t for one of the top cornerbacks, another possible option would be that they were targeting a specific receiver. Maybe it was receiver Brian Thomas Jr. who went at pick No. 23 or receiver Xavier Worthy who went a few picks later.
Top Day 2 prospects for Texans
- Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
- Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
- Cooper DeJean, S, Iowa
- Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
- Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
- Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota
- Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
- Jermaine Burton, WR, Alabama
- Keon Coleman, WR, FSU
- Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
- Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
- Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
- Michael Hall Jr., DT, OSU
- Christian Mahogany, OG, Boston College
- Max Melton, CB, Rutgers
- Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina
- Kris Jenkins, DL, Michigan
- Cooper Beebe, OG, Kansas State
- Jalen McMillan, WR, Washington
- Javon Bullard, S, Georgia
- Malachi Corley, WR, Western Kentucky
- Payton Wilson, LB, NC State
- Braden Fiske, DT, FSU
- Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona
- Blake Fisher, OT, Notre Dame
- Austin Booker, EDGE, Kansas
- Dominick Puni, OG, Kansas
- Decamerion Richardson, CB, Mississippi State
- Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE, Western Michigan
- Tykee Smith, S, Georgia
- Patrick Paul, OT, Houston
- Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami
- Roger Rosengarten, OG, Washington
- Kris Abrams-Draine, CB, Missouri
- Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan
Here are the players the Texans should trade up for, stand firm for and trade back for:
Trade up
There are six players the Texans could consider trading up for: Mitchell, Rakestraw Jr., DeJean, McKinstry, Nubin and Cooper. It wouldn’t cost much to move from pick No. 42 up to pick No. 33-38 to secure one of those prospects. Of the six listed, one has a top-15 value: Mitchell. He has the potential to be one of the top receivers in this class.
The talent is all there, it’s up to the coaches to ensure they get it out of him every play. If the Texans drafted Mitchell, he wouldn’t be forced into heavy action Year 1 due to the talent at the position. It would allow him to learn how to be a professional before being relied on.
Wide receiver isn't necessarily a need for Houston after the trade for Stefon Diggs, but quarterback C.J. Stroud had a visceral reaction when a different wide receiver, Florida's Ricky Pearsall, went to the 49ers at No. 31. Maybe Stroud just liked Pearsall as a player, but the body language suggested he wanted someone like Pearsall in the draft.
CJ was REALLY high on Ricky Pearsall. Seems as if the 49ers caught us off guard and you can hear CJ mutter “we will probably still get a WR”
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) April 26, 2024
I wonder if the rumors about Niners trading Auyik threw us off thinking they draft an X & not a slot. pic.twitter.com/vl1Ar36J56
Rakestraw Jr. and McKinstry each have been knocked for past injuries but have the talent. If the Texans are good with their medicals, then trading up for one of these cornerbacks would make a ton of sense as it fits a need, the value is there and there’s a talent falloff at the position after this duo goes off the board.
DeJean and Nubin are the top two safeties in the draft and moving up for either would help solidify a position of need with Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward as the only players at that position for Houston with starting potential. Cooper is the top linebacker in the draft and as is the case with each of these players listed displayed tape worthy of being selected on Day 1.
There’s not a ton of talent or depth at the position in the draft or left over in free agency. Houston could easily make the case to move up and draft the best prospect at his position in this class. Cooper would upgrade 4-3-4 looks as a starter with Azeez Al-Shaair while also providing talented depth and rotation in their 4-2-5 looks.
Stand firm
There are about 10-12 guys that the Texans could be happy with if they stay at pick No. 42. They’re guaranteed to land one of those guys if they just sit firm. In this scenario, the main knock would be that they aren’t controlling what’s available to them and are limited to prospects other teams pass on first.
Ideally, Houston would stay at pick No. 42 and have one of the previous six prospects mentioned in the trade-up section fall to them. However, if they are gone here are other realistic targets that could last to them and still be good value at their selection.
If they stay firm and are considering receivers, one of Mitchell, Keon Coleman or Ladd McConkey could fall to them. If they miss out on that group, the falloff isn't steep to the next group of receivers available at pick No. 59. They could land someone at the receiver group as late as the fourth round and still be fine.
After Rakestraw Jr. and McKinstry go off the board, there are only another couple of corners that prevent a drastic drop in talent from that duo. Max Melton could be the pivot at corner if Houston waits it out at No. 42. The consensus rankings like other guys at the position like Sainristil, Cam Hart, T.J. Tampa and Kamari Lassiter. Out of those four, Sainristil would be the best option at pick No. 42.
If Houston wants to grab a defensive tackle they should have one of the group of Newton, Hall Jr. and Fiske survive until their selection. There's not a ton of separation between the trio and any from the group would be considered a win at their current selection.
DeJean and Nubin are the top two safeties and there's a chance both could be gone. The group gets thin after their selections. If neither makes it to pick No. 42, the Texans could consider Javon Bullard with the pick or wait and see if he's still available at pick No. 59.
There's several offensive line options but I don't believe the Texans target the position with their first pick. If they do, Suamataia, Powers-Johnson and Christian Mahogany would all make sense depending on which position on the line they were targeting.
Trade back
Nick Caserio has called the second to fourth round the “sweet spot” of this draft. Caserio could opt to move back a few spots and look to add more picks in the third and fourth rounds if he doesn’t believe that a prospect of value fell to them. The 42nd pick is still early enough to where it has enough value to acquire other picks that can fill holes, needs or depth for cheap. Ideally, the Texans will come out of this draft with six picks between pick No. 45 and pick No. 150.
By trading back a few picks it most likely means that none of the top six prospects outlined above lasted until pick No. 42. Houston could get on the clock and still see the trio of Newton, Hall Jr. and Fiske still available while other teams are desperate to move up for another player at a position they're desperate for. The Texans could then take the extra pick by trading back a few spots and still land a value pick at defensive tackle.
They could have several of the cornerbacks listed under the "stand firm" category and also be content with getting one of the handful after a short dropback.
If they would like to go to the offensive line but feel it's a little too early, they could drop back far enough in the second round that would allow them to pick up another top-100 pick. Then they could draft Blake Fisher or Patrick Paul at tackle or Mahogany or Cooper Beebe at guard while adding a third-round pick.
Depending on how they have linebackers Cooper and Wilson graded, Houston could wait on Cooper and if he gets selected before pick No. 42, the Texans could drop and select Wilson 5-10 picks later.
Lastly, trading back would be ideal if the Texans want a safety and DeJean and Nubin are gone before their selection. If that scenario plays out the Texans could drop back to around the No. 50 pick and target Bullard.
There are a lot of ways that the Texans could go today as they've set themselves up to have options. The situation is fluid and should be an entertaining, albeit nervous time for Texans fans today.
