The first round of the 2024 NFL draft kicks off Thursday night, but the Texans will have to wait until the second round starts the following day before they get in on the action after they traded their first-round pick to the Vikings weeks earlier.
When the Texans traded out of the first round they were slotted to select with pick No. 23. If general manager Nick Caserio and the Texans truly have only 15 players with first-round grades, they may have felt that they would be drafting a second-rounder at that slot. Now, comfortably sitting at pick No. 42 and with four other selections inside the top 130 picks, the Texans have the ammunition to package picks to move back into the first round for a top-15 to 20 prospect that makes an unsuspected slide into the early to mid-20s.
Here are several prospects that could warrant the trade-up, from the dream scenario to the reasonable.
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Texans first-round trade-up targets
Dream scenario
- DT Byron Murphy II, Texas
- CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
Murphy II and Mitchell are the top prospects at their respective position, which happens to be in two areas the Texans need to add talent. In a first round that will be dominated by offensive players, Murphy II or Mitchell could be the first defender selected. If either of the pair slips into the late teens or early 20s, Houston should be on the phone to move up.
The likelihood of this happening is less low, though, as both prospects should be selected in the top 15 picks.
Highly Unlikely
- OL Troy Fautanu, Washington
- OL Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
- TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
The Texans spent a ton of money and picks on their offensive line in the past few years, so it’s unlikely that they would trade into the first round and give up extra picks to add to the position. But the talent of Fautanu and Fuaga, along with their versatility to legitimately play at tackle or guard at a high level, would make it enticing if either of the pair made it into the 20s. Both prospects are worthy of going in the top-10 picks. It would be more of a luxury move than a need but the value of adding either would be immense, not only for the future but in 2024 as either could step up at tackle or guard as a rookie if injury or a decline in play hit the starting unit.
Bowers is more of a luxury pick as well if the Texans were to trade into the first to select him, especially after Houston re-signed tight end Dalton Schultz earlier this offseason. The Texans could use talented depth behind him but don't need the top player at the position in the draft. However, Bowers is extremely talented and rumored to go in the top 15 picks of the draft. Houston’s AFC South rival, the Colts have been paired with Bowers in the middle of the first round in a ton of mock drafts. If Bowers makes it past the Colts and into the 20s, then the Texans would at least need to consider making the move up. Their 12-personnel would be stellar and Bowers could replace Schultz by Year 3 in the offense.
Most likely trade-up candidates
- WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
- WR Xavier Worthy, Texas
- CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
- CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
The most likely prospects the Texans could trade into the first round for are either a receiver from Texas or a cornerback from Alabama. There’s a duo from each school that is being projected from anywhere from the top-10 picks in Arnold’s case to the late first round for McKinstry and Mitchell, to even as late as the second round for Worthy.
However, the consensus has all four players going in the first round. Depending on how the Texans have them each graded, Houston could trade up in the range of pick No. 25 through pick No. 32 to select one.
Mitchell is a legitimate top-15 prospect who plays his best ball in the biggest games. On film, he’ll take a play off or not run it to full speed as he’s not expecting the ball. It’s a bad look. That said, Malik Nabers has similar issues and isn’t being talked about as a guy who’ll slide. In scouting, you’re told to find out what guys can do. If they can do it all, then it’s up to the coaches to get that effort out of the player 100% of the time. Coaches get paid to coach. The Texans should consider moving up for Mitchell if he makes it to the mid-20s in the first round. They’ll be adding a stud at the position, then it’s up to their coaches to make sure he plays to his potential every down.
Texans 2024 NFL Draft target breakdowns: WR | RB | TE | OT | DB | DT | LB
Guys who run phenomenally fast go earlier than the media expects, typically. Worthy ran the fastest 40-time in NFL combine history at 4.21. It’ll be a surprise if he makes it out of the top-20 picks. Some mocks have Worthy lasting until the second round. The Texans should be on the phone to trade up if Worthy’s still available around the mid-20s. It’s crazy to think that the Texans could legitimately add a receiver with 4.21 speed to play along with Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell for C.J. Stroud to target.
McKinstry should be one of the first three players selected at his position, along with Mitchell and Arnold. The consensus has McKinstry typically going off the board between pick No. 20 and the end of the round. Opposite of Derek Stingley Jr., the Texans currently have rostered two failed top-10 picks from the 2020 NFL draft in Jeff Okudah and C.J. Henderson. McKinstry would come in and compete to start as he is one of the best press jam cornerbacks in this class. While he’s best when getting a punch off at the snap, close to the line in man coverage, he can also play zone coverage as well. If McKinstry is still available around pick No. 28, Houston could get on the phones, looking to move up.
Arnold has been mocked as high as a top-10 pick in this class to as low as the mid-20s. If he lasts until the latter, then the Texans could target Arnold. Arnold doesn’t use a punch on the line in press as he mostly relies on his footwork and hips. When facing the Texas’ receivers mentioned on this list, he struggled with their speed as he was either caught flat-footed, handsy or on the ground too often. Arnold ran a 4.50 at the NFL combine, which was slower than the reported 4.47 that his teammate McKinstry ran at their pro day with a Jones fracture in his right foot.
