Breaking down C.J. Stroud's passing splits heading into 2024

In 2011, I started working in fantasy football for RotoExperts with a talented team that included Dr. Roto, Scott Engel, Adam Ronis, Pat Mayo, Jake Ciely, Mike Florio, Bob Lung, Corey Parson and many others. 

It was during this time that I really started using the “splits” in players’ stats to find areas of strength and weakness in their games and how it’ll translate to weekly fantasy production. Typically I use ESPN or ProFootballReference.com for the splits. For today’s article, all stats are from PFR. 

On my typical Saturday morning radio visit with Dr. Roto on his “Fantasy House Calls” show on the SiriusXM Fantasy channel, I used a Jared Goff split to illustrate his struggles outside of a dome and on the road in 2023 to make the point on why tight end Sam LaPorta will continue to see his fantasy production dip in road games.

For example, here’s how Goff’s split shows eye-opening concerns: This past year he put up a 4:1 touchdown-interception ratio (24 TDs, 6 INTs) in dome games. When he played outdoors or in stadiums with retractable roofs, that ratio plummeted to 1:1 with six touchdowns and six interceptions. 

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There’s an easy correlation to LaPorta’s production due to Goff not throwing touchdowns in road games. LaPorta caught an outstanding 10 touchdowns as a rookie, nine of which came at home with only one road touchdown despite playing in more road games than home games.

After the segment, curiosity from the discussion led to seeing what Texans’ quarterback C.J. Stroud’s stellar rookie season tells us about the strengths and weaknesses of his game from Year 1. 

Breaking down C.J. Stroud's passing splits heading into 2024

Home vs. Road in 2023

The win-loss record sticks out but it’s difficult to win on the road, especially for a rookie, no matter how talented he is. Next, Stroud threw fewer than one touchdown pass in road games compared to averaging more than two per home matchup. The completion percentage dipped by 3.5% on the road.

Against the AFC South

The old adage is that the quickest way to the playoffs is through the division. The Texans went 3-2 in those five divisional matchups in which Stroud played. If Stroud continues to play against the AFC South as he did as a rookie, then Houston should sustain yearly playoff success with an improved divisional record going forward.

However, the Jaguars, Colts and Titans all have young quarterbacks improving as well with Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. This past year, the trio of Lawrence, Richardson and Levis combined for 14 TDs and 10 INTs in divisional games.

MORE: Texans have several positional battles in 2024

Against the AFC South in 2023, Lawrence totaled 10 passing touchdowns, six interceptions and three rushing touchdowns. Richardson saw limited action but did see time in three games against the AFC South in which he totaled one passing touchdown, three interceptions and three rushing touchdowns. To Levis’s credit, he played in four divisional games with three passing touchdowns, one interception and one rushing touchdown.

Against the AFC (including playoffs)

Despite going 6-4 in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs over the Texans' 12 AFC games this past season, Stroud’s 18:1 touchdown-interception ratio was just plain silly.

Forget just making it to the playoffs via the AFC South route — if Stroud’s play just stays on par, production-wise, the Texans will be yearly conference contenders. 

Stroud's worst month, including a game against the Cardinals

When there are only five interceptions in the season-long data, one bad game can stick out like a sore thumb. As far as overall stats, the three interceptions against the NFC opponent heavily tilts unfavorable stats towards the NFC and the month of November as well as throwing off Stroud’s home touchdown-interception ratio. 

The week before the Cardinals game, the Texans played in Cincinnati where Stroud completed 23-of-39 pass attempts (59%) for 356 yards, one touchdown and one interception with a rushing touchdown as well. The four total interceptions in back-to-back weeks totaled 80% of his interceptions on the year and led to his worst month in that area as a pro. However, Houston went 3-1 for November.

It was truly just the interceptions for November as the W-L record was ideal as was the passer rating with a stellar completion percentage. Stroud also averaged 100 passing yards more per game (367) that month than any other month as a pro. A few weeks prior, in mid-October, Stroud threw his first interception of the season against the Saints at home. 

The Texans played five games from Oct. 15, 2023, (against the Saints) through Nov. 19 (against the Cardinals). During this span, Stroud had three games with an interception. He had zero in the other 12 games, including the playoffs with 16 passing touchdowns.  

Was the NFC really the problem? The Texans played four of their five NFC opponents during this five-game span with the fifth, the Falcons the week before the Saints game in which Stroud completed 57.1% of his passes for 249 yards and a touchdown.

That makes all five NFC opponents on the season in a six-week span that happens to coincide with the period of all of his interceptions and some of his games with the lowest completion percentage and yardage.

What doesn’t gel with the NFC being an issue is the fact that right in the middle of this period, Stroud had his best game as a pro and one of the best games for a rookie in NFL history and it was against the NFC’s Bucs. 

At home against the Buccaneers, Stroud completed 30-of-42 passes (71.4%) for 470 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs and a passer rating of 147.8. Then, in the next two weeks, he threw his second interception of the year in Cincinnati, followed by the hat trick at home against the Cardinals. 

In five games before the five-game period with all of his five interceptions on the season, Stroud threw seven touchdowns and zero interceptions while averaging 292 passing yards a game. 

Following the mid-season interception funk, Stroud finished the year with nine passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last seven appearances, including the playoffs. 

Here’s a look at other variables that factored in Stroud’s play as a rookie. 

When trailing versus leading

What pops out is the 13:0 touchdown-interception rate when his team is trailing in games ... as a rookie. It’s interesting to see the varying difference in the two areas as you’d expect that he would have played more conservatively when leading but per the stats, that doesn’t seem to be the case.

2nd down with 7+ yards to-go

Four of Stroud’s five interceptions came on 2nd down with seven or more yards to go. One came on 2nd down with 7-9 yards to go while the other three were with 10+ yards to the sticks.

His only other interception came on a 3rd down with less than three yards to go.

Fourth Quarter

Three of his five interceptions came in the fourth quarter.

Under center vs Shotgun

Play action

RPO vs. non-RPO

With more or less than 2.5 seconds to throw