2024 Texans schedule breakdown and predictions for the season

The 2024 NFL schedule has been released. The Texans landed four primetime games along with a Wednesday matchup on Christmas against the Ravens and a Saturday matchup four days prior at Kansas City.

Houston is looking to build on its 2023 season that saw the team go to the AFC divisional round with first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans and NFL Rookies of the Year C.J. Stroud at quarterback with Will Anderson Jr. at defensive end. The Texans spent a lot of money this offseason and made some marquee trades to upgrade their young and ascending team.

This squad has Super Bowl aspirations, but they'll need to get through their schedule first. It figures to be one of the tougher slates in the league after Houston won the AFC South and drew all the first-place teams as well as the AFC East and NFC North.

Here’s a look at how the Texans' schedule breaks down by each quarter of the season and an early prediction on their final record.

2024 Texans schedule breakdown and predictions for the season

The Texans start with three of their first five games in Houston, although they open the year on the road against the Colts. Houston also sees a lot of young quarterbacks early in their schedule.

They’ll need to get off to a fast start as the second half of the season becomes extremely difficult. 

2024 Texans first quarter

The Texans travel to the Colts in Week 1 and get quarterback Anthony Richardson in only his fifth NFL start after he missed 13 games as a rookie with a shoulder injury. Richardson only has two games in which he attempted more than 12 passes as a rookie. 

The following week the Texans face rookie quarterback Caleb Williams in only his second NFL start. That’s followed by taking on the Vikings in which either quarterback Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy will start in both’s first years in Minnesota’s offense. 

The Texans finish the first quarter of the season with a home game against the Jaguars that they’ve won 16 of the past 20, despite Jacksonville winning the past two in Houston.  

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The first couple of weeks of the regular season mostly look like preseason football. The Texans benefit from having continuity on their offense after retaining their offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and quarterback coach Jerrod Johnson this offseason. Houston also retained all of their starters except running back Devin Singletary, who they replaced with their trade for Joe Mixon. 

The Texans will face three offenses in their first three games that will have only four total starts among their quarterbacks. Houston gets a blessing with their early season schedule and will be favored in each matchup. In 2012 the Texans, won five consecutive games to start their season. They’ve never had another season with three consecutive wins to start their season in their history. That should change this year. 

2024 Texans second quarter

The Bills head to Houston for the Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs showdown. Buffalo isn’t the same team that they’ve been in recent years after losing big-name players this offseason, including Diggs to the Texans in a trade.

Houston then hits the road for back-to-back games against the Patriots and Packers. The Packers game will be a showdown between two young quarterbacks in Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud who each had stellar 2023 seasons. The Texans then draw divisional foe the Colts in Houston to cap the end of the first two quarters of the season. Indianapolis should be a more dangerous team by this point in the season.

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The Texans should be favored in the first eight games of the season with the Packers game the most likely to tilt toward the home team’s favor. Houston could legitimately challenge their franchise record of five consecutive wins to start a season. 

The schedule-makers did the Texans a favor with the first half of the 2024 schedule. Houston will need to take advantage of the early season schedule. Anything less than 6-2 over the first eight games would be considered a disappointment. 

First Half Prediction: 6-2

2024 Texans third third-quarter

The third quarter of the Texans’ 2024 season may not be the hardest but it’s a rough run. They’ll have three consecutive primetime games, two of which are on the road before ending with two divisional foes. 

The Texans face the Jets on short rest on the road on Halloween night with Aaron Rodgers — conceivably — back at quarterback. Then they get an extended break after the Thursday night game before having to play two teams that each finished 12-5 and tied with the 49ers for the best record in the NFC this past year. Houston will have 10 days to prepare for the Lions and eight for the Cowboys on Monday night.

The downside of the Texans’ late bye week is the fact that numerous players could be injured and not have a down week to recuperate from their wounds for the first three months of a growling season. The Texans may win ugly during this stretch but as long as they come out with a winning record over the five games, it’ll still be a successful third quarter to their season. 

Third Quarter Prediction: 3-2

2024 Texans fourth quarter

The positive to the late bye week is that the Texans get rest for players who have played three consecutive months and have gotten banged up while also allowing players that were hurt earlier in the season to return from injured reserve.

It’s the perfect time for the way the Texans' schedule is laid out with the hardest stretch coming after the bye week. They'll play three consecutive games against teams that won 11 or more games this past season. Houston will need every bit of the health and energy to take on the Dolphins' speed, back-to-back champion Chiefs in Arrowhead and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson with the Ravens all in 10 days. 

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While the 10-day span is brutal, the Texans will be rested for the Dolphins and have an extra week to game plan for them before facing them in Houston. There’s no positive way to look at facing Patrick Mahomes on short rest during wintertime in Kansas City. After facing those two teams in six days, Houston will need to turn around four days later and play on a Christmas day that falls on a Wednesday and gameplan for Jackson and running back Derrick Henry in a small window. 

Fourth Quarter Prediction: 2-2

Texans 2024 season prediction

Final Prediction: 11-6 (AFC South champions)

Houston needs to take advantage of the games in the first half of the year. The more of those they win, the better their chances of playing for a top seed in the playoffs. If they struggle early, the Texans would be competing for another AFC South title instead of a one-seed and first-round bye. 

If the Texans take care of business in the first half of the season they would only need to hover around .500 in the second half to hang with the top AFC teams possibly. Ideally for the Texans, they would go 8-0 to start the year, which is feasible, and still be able to just go 5-4 over the second half and still end with a 13-3 record which could be in contention for a first-round bye.

Texans floor: 9-8

Texans ceiling: 13-4