NFL expert gives Detroit Lions shockingly low chance to win 1st Super Bowl

Mike Moraitis

NFL expert gives Detroit Lions shockingly low chance to win 1st Super Bowl image

The Detroit Lions are one of 12 teams in the NFL to never win a Super Bowl, but the franchise is closer than ever as it enters the 2024 campaign.

The Lions were one of the best teams in the NFL in 2023 after they went 12-5, won the division and made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game before blowing a big halftime lead against the San Francisco 49ers.

Looking ahead to 2024, Detroit stands as one of the biggest favorites to win a Super Bowl, as they're returning much of the same roster and general manager Brad Holmes has significantly upgraded the cornerbacks room, which was the team's biggest issue on that side of the ball in 2023.

Despite all that, Bleacher Report's Brad Gagnon doesn't think the Lions have the best chance to win a Super Bowl out of the 12 teams that don't have one, giving them an 8% chance to do so.

Instead, he thinks the Buffalo Bills (10%) and Cincinnati Bengals (9%) have a better shot. As you'd expect, doubts about Jared Goff play into that for Gagnon, as do some other factors. Here's what he wrote:

Only the 49ers have better Super Bowl odds in the NFC than a Lions team that on paper is even better now than it was when it won a dozen games and came just a few points short of its first-ever Super Bowl appearance in 2023.

The overall talent level in Detroit probably trumps Buffalo and Cincinnati at this point, but the defense was often still a liability in 2023, it's still tougher to buy into Jared Goff than it is Allen or Burrow, and it's fair to still wonder if this franchise remains snake-bitten.

The Lions snuck up on the league a bit last year. Will it be tough to maintain that and live up to the hype in '24? It's worth considering, but they absolutely should be in the mix and a run to the Super Bowl is definitely on the table.

The fact that the Bills top this list is stunning. Yes, they still have Josh Allen, but Buffalo also unloaded a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, and especially on offense, where they lost two of Allen's favorite targets in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The Bills will be fortunate to make the playoffs, let alone a Super Bowl.

The Bengals have a better chance than the Bills. After all, they have a quarterback who has actually been to a Super Bowl, and Cincy sports more talent on both sides of the ball. However, Joe Burrow has had his fair share of injury issues during his career, making him a bit unreliable.

Unlike Allen, Goff has actually been to a Super Bowl during his career, and he's been to a pair of conference title games and has more playoff wins than any NFC quarterback since he entered the league in 2016. And, unlike Burrow, availability isn't an issue for Goff, who also has a better supporting cast than Burrow.

You can maybe make the argument that the Bengals have a better shot (we would not), but putting the Bills ahead of both the Bengals and Lions is absurd. The list should be Detroit, Cincinnati, and then a wide gap between them and everyone else.

Mike Moraitis

Mike Moraitis Photo

After cutting his teeth with Bleacher Report, Mike Moraitis has covered the Los Angeles Rams and Tennessee Titans for FanSided, and the Titans and New York Giants for USA TODAY Sports Media Group. On top of his duties with Sporting News, Mike is the managing editor and lead writer for Titans Wire.