The Denver Broncos will have a rookie quarterback drafted in the first round who will be the most-talked-about player on the roster ahead of the 2024 season.
Bo Nix was anointed the face of the team's future when he was chosen with the No. 12 overall pick in the draft, but should expectations be tempered? Many analysts feel the Broncos "reached" for Nix and the fact that he was the sixth quarterback taken in the draft can't be ignored.
The 2024 NFL Draft saw an unprecedented run on quarterbacks — six in the first 12 picks. The fact that the Broncos got the last one on that list leads to many questions, a trend that shouldn't be overlooked.
Denver Broncos got their guy in Bo Nix
After the draft, Broncos head coach Sean Payton made it clear that the team got the player it had been targeting all along. Any team will say that, but Payton sounds truthful in that the team just loved what Nix had to offer.
But it is unlikely for so many things to also be true. Either several teams missed on the talent that Nix had or at least a few of them drafted some busts in the five quarterbacks taken ahead of him. There is also the chance that all six quarterbacks go on to have great careers, but that is the least likely of all scenarios.
Here, I am going to look back at the last five NFL drafts and focus on the sixth quarterback taken in each. While none of these guys were taken in the sixth round, you will notice that none of these guys have done much of note, either.
So either 2024 was an aberration and there were so many great quarterbacks in the class or the Broncos overdrafted Nix and will see that over time. One of those statements is almost certainly true.
Going back to 2019, these are the players who were the sixth quarterback off the board in each year. You'll start to notice a trend that goes back much, much further across history.
2019-2023: Sixth QB selected in the draft from each year
2023: Jake Haener, New Orleans Saints- 4th round
Career stats: N/A
5 QBs selected ahead of him: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, Hendon Hooker
Jake Haener did not play as a rookie and was suspended for the first six weeks of the season due to violating the league's policy against banned substances. He will be playing for a spot on the roster this summer as the team drafted Spencer Rattler this spring.
2022: Sam Howell, Washington Commanders- 5th round
Career stats: 63.2% completions, 4,115 yards, 22 TDs, 22 INTs
5 QBs selected ahead of him: Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corral, Bailey Zappe
Sam Howell was the sixth QB taken in a very weak draft class at the position. It took just 18 games for the Commanders to trade him, which they did this offseason, sending him to the Seattle Seahawks. He will now be the backup to Geno Smith.
2021: Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 2nd round
Career stats: 3-of-10 passing, 23 yards
5 QBs selected ahead of him: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones
The Broncos needed a quarterback in this draft and had the chance to take one with the No. 9 overall pick, opting instead to go with Pat Surtain II.
The Buccaneers' selection of Kyle Trask has never materialized. There was talk last summer that he was pushing Baker Mayfield in training camp, but that won't happen this year after the season Mayfield had.
2020: Jacob Eason, Indianapolis Colts- 4th round
Career stats: 5-of-10 passing, 84 yards, O TDs, 2 INTs
5 QBs selected ahead of him: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagavailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts
There were nearly 70 picks in this draft between the fifth QB taken (Jalen Hurts) and the sixth, Jacob Eason. The five names in front of Eason are easily the best on this list but then there was a huge dropoff.
Eason was on a practice squad for most of his career between five different teams and is currently out of the league at just 26 years old.
2019: Ryan Finley, Cincinnati Bengals- 4th round
Career Stats: 48.7% completions, 638 yards passing, 3 TDs, 4 INTs
5 QBs selected ahead of him: Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Will Grier
If you remember this draft, Ryan Finley had a lot of appeal as a late-round steal heading into it. The Bengals selected him with an eye on the future, but he never came close to living up to that hype.
After two seasons, he was traded to the Houston Texans who didn't even wait until the start of training camp that season before waiving him.
With the exception of Dwayne Haskins who unfortunately passed away, all of the other quarterbacks taken ahead of Finley are still in the league. Finley has been out of it for three years.
Where does this leave Bo Nix?
Perhaps this is much ado about nothing, but historical trends are trends for a reason. Nix will have to be the exception to the rule. But there could be some light at the end of the tunnel.
In 1983, the most recognized draft in league history, particularly at the QB position, the sixth QB taken was... Dan Marino.
