The 2023 Buffalo Bills were a season-long Jägerbomb.
After kicking off the season with a self-inflicted loss to the New York Jets, Buffalo seemed to reel themselves in and put together three straight dominant performances against the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders, and Miami Dolphins, respectively, while living in the realm of playing 200 miles per hour. They were an ‘80s hair metal band that was at the peak of their popularity thinking they’d live forever and be able to maintain that style of play all season.
Buffalo found out quickly, though, that they can’t play each week like they are in a Motley Crue music video. They lost four of their next six games, including a Monday night loss to the Denver Broncos that proved to be the final straw that broke Ken Dorsey’s back. The Bills fired their second-year offensive coordinator and replaced him with quarterbacks coach Joe Brady, and from the jump, it was clear that something was changing - their identity.
Under Dorsey for the first 10 weeks of the season, the Bills were a strange enigma offensively. They rarely took layups, instead opting for a more “all or nothing” style of play. Josh Allen led the NFL in attempts of 15 or more air yards in that span with 75, per Sports Info Solutions. Now, Allen being Allen, he also led the league in touchdowns and interceptions on those passes, as well. Being the specimen that he is at quarterback, that is the double-edged sword you live with if you’re the Bills. While the interceptions can sometimes be a bit much, you know Allen is going to make several plays in every game that other quarterbacks simply can’t. And for the most part, it was working. From Weeks1-10, the Bills were third in the NFL in EPA per play and first in success rate.
So what happened?
Well, in a lot of ways, the offense relapsed. While they were still one of the better offenses in the NFL at driving the ball down the field and creating big plays, they became inconsistent and very high variance. In Weeks 5-10, Allen’s EPA per dropback dipped to 12th in the NFL, and he led the league in interceptions in that span. And again, many of those turnovers came from trying halfcourt shots when a layup was available. Of Allen’s seven interceptions in that span, five of them were on passes 15 or more yards downfield. And while Allen is one of the best, if not the best deep ball passer in the game today, you can’t be successful long-term if that is the sole offensive gameplan.
All of that changed rather abruptly when Brady took over in Week 11. They leaned more into the run game and became more of an efficient passing attack that killed you with a thousand cuts rather than with a cannonball to the face.
For starters, Brady saw how efficient James Cook was in the first half of the season, and also saw that Dorsey refused to use him nearly as much as he should have. Over the first 10 weeks of the season, Cook was 20th in the NFL in carries, but sixth in yards. From Weeks 11-18, he was 10th in the league in carries and finished fourth in yards from scrimmage.
Brady also changed their run philosophy to more of an outside run-style team. Under Dorsey, the Bills were 22nd in attempts on counters, outside zone, and stretch plays - they were third under Brady, and sixth in yards on those three types of runs.
And while the Bills somewhat reeled in Allen and the usage of the deep ball, they unleashed him on the ground. He had 35 designed runs and seven touchdowns on designed runs under Brady - he had two touchdowns on 17 designed runs under Dorsey. There was clearly a hesitancy with Dorsey to use Allen as a runner while Brady leaned into it. This also took a lot of pressure off the passing game. In the first 10 weeks of the season, Allen was second in the league in attempts with 350, but 15th in attempts with 229 under Brady.
Naturally, this also led to more opportunities for the Bills' running backs. Buffalo went from 17th in the league in runs by a running back under Dorsey to seventh under Brady. They handed the ball off roughly 27 times per game to running backs with Brady, which was a jump from the 19.5 times per game under Dorsey.
That uptick in using running backs, specifically Cook, proved pivotal for the Bills down the stretch when they won six of their last seven games en route to their fourth straight AFC East crown. Against the Dallas Cowboys, he ran for 179 yards and added 42 through the air and two total scores. On the road against the Kansas City Chiefs the week prior, he was the team’s leading receiver and had a receiving touchdown. Overall, Cook had over 100 scrimmage yards in each of the first four games under Brady.
While the Bills underwent a lot of cosmetic changes offensively this offseason, most notably trading Stefon Diggs, their offense has the personnel it needs to continue being an efficient juggernaut. The Bills are entering a reset year much like the Chiefs in 2022 after trading Tyreek Hill.
Cook will continue being a factor, as will tight end Dalton Kincaid, who had a tremendous rookie season. And look at the receivers they’ve acquired this offseason. Keon Coleman is a perfect addition to this new style of offense for Buffalo. He can win at the line of scrimmage and get that underneath separation to get a lot of quick targets. Curtis Samuel is another guy that is very good after the catch. Chase Claypool, if used properly, can be a physical power slot receiver. So while it may look different than the Bills we’ve seen in years past, there is no need to worry about how good this offense can be.
The Bills have a good corps of skill players, a good offensive coordinator, and most importantly, they have Josh Allen. Because of those three factors, they have the potential to be as good as any offense the team has fielded since drafting Allen in 2018. While there will still be those who doubt the Bills, it would be unwise to do so. They will continue being one of the NFL’s powerhouses whether you like it or not.
