The Buffalo Bills have been one of the best teams, and one of the best offenses, in the NFL for the last half decade.
Last season, the Bills finished third in the NFL in EPA per play and second in success rate. However, there is one aspect of the game that Buffalo has consistently struggled with - finishing at the goal line.
In 2023, the Bills were 31st in the league at goal line passing in terms of EPA per play. And over the last three years, the Bills rank last in EPA per attempt and 32nd in success rate from the goal line.
the Bills & Chiefs
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 14, 2024
2 of the NFL's best offenses
1 has been to 4 of last 5 Super Bowls
the other can't consistently score at the goal line
I wrote about this last summer
but it didn't improve in 2023 (#31)
3 OCs over 3 years & Josh Allen is DEAD LAST in goal line passing pic.twitter.com/3eBFBQKLkH
the Bills goal line passing offense the last 3 years...
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 14, 2024
across play callers of Brian Daboll, Ken Dorsey & Joe Brady...
ranks:
#32 in EPA/att (-0.91)
#32 in success rate (#31%)
For whatever reason, the Bills just can’t seem to convert through the air when they get down to the one. However, under Joe Brady, the Bills showed more of a willingness to run the ball far more often. They also leaned into utilizing Josh Allen’s legs. When they get down to the one yard-line, expect more sneaks from Allen, similar to how the Philadelphia Eagles run the ball with Jalen Hurts. Instead of a tush push, though, Allen’s frame and physicality will be used to power the ball into the end zone.