It'd be understandable if fantasy football managers want to avoid Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry this season.
After all, Henry is 30 years, with a old of miles on his legs — he's led the NFL in carries in four of the last five years.
Henry had one of his worst statistical seasons in 2023, accumulating 1,381 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns. While that doesn't sound like a disappointment — Henry finished as RB5 in standard scoring in 2023 — it was his second-fewest yards from scrimmage in the last five years. Touchdowns also saved some of his performances, as he ran for less than 80 yards in 10 games.
With Henry potentially going into decline and a crop of younger, exciting running backs entering the fold, some fantasy managers are bypassing Henry or viewing him as a second-round pick.
However, Henry's move to Baltimore could help him produce another elite fantasy season.
This is less an argument that Henry is inaccurately priced and more why he could be in line to once again be one of the best running backs in fantasy football.
1. The Ravens intend to use Henry — a lot.
This isn't a situation where Henry is entering a 50-50 split.
"I think what it's going to look like is what it looked like in Tennessee: him running for a lot of yards," Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said about how Henry will be used.
Behind Henry is Justice Hill, who will receive some touches and receiving opportunities, but not enough to seriously eat into Henry's workload. Keaton Mitchell, last year's breakout running back before tearing his ACL, is beginning the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, meaning he'll miss at least four games.
Henry and the Ravens are a match made in heaven: the team didn't sign him to sit on the sideline.
Add in the fact that Baltimore should be leading in plenty of games, and there will be lots of opportunities for Henry to help milk the clock.
2. Henry should have an easier time running in Baltimore.
The Athletic's Robert Mays revealed an eye-popping stat on "The Athletic Football Show:" Over the last four years, Henry ran into a defense in a "light box" 24% of the time. The league average was 48%.
In other words, Henry was running into crowded defenses designed to stop the run nearly double the rate of other running backs.
Now with the Ravens, who are in Year 2 of Todd Monken's pass-focused offense, and who have a dual-threat MVP candidate in Lamar Jackson, defenses can't load up on Henry quite as often.
"Let's just play out this scenario: You walk to the line of scrimmage, you're in 11 personnel with three wide receivers. The defense is in a light box. You can hand the ball off to Derrick Henry," Mays said. "That's the whole point. You get him on the perimeter, you get him moving against lighter personnel, lighter bodies."
Harbaugh painted a similar vision, saying the Ravens will use more pre-snap movement to fool defenses and try to create cleaner running paths for Henry. Harbaugh said that the goal is to give Henry more room to run, untouched, because he is harder to bring down with a head of steam.
3. There will be plenty of touchdown opportunities
The Ravens were one of the top teams at getting into the red zone and one of the best red-zone scoring teams. That has typically been an area where Lamar Jackson has thrived at running into the end zone.
But Jackson is a 27-year-old franchise quarterback signed to a rich, long-term contract. The Ravens would surely love to ease his burden in crowded sections of the field.
Enter Henry.
It would not be surprising to see Jackson eschew some of his own red zone runs to hand the ball off to Henry.
Sports Illustrated's Zach Orr predicted this exact scenario, predicting that Henry will score "at least" 14 touchdowns — which would be his most since 2020 — while vulturing several from Jackson.
4. Henry will stave off decline with his dedication to his body.
Henry seems to take care of himself beyond the standard of most professional athletes. After all, this is a man who reportedly spends $240,000 annually on body maintenance. He has a strict diet, goes through rigorous weight-lifting sessions, and is dedicated to recovery.
The Ravens believe Henry won't fall off precisely because he works so hard and is so dedicated to his craft. It's a situation akin to LeBron James in the NBA (although James is nine years older than Henry) — James has stayed at or near his peak longer than many thought possible, in part, because of his dedication to his body.
Add it all up, and it's easy to imagine a scenario where Henry turns back the clocks in Baltimore. He was the fifth-best running back in fantasy football last year while playing in a dreadful Titans offense, against defenses focused almost solely on stopping him.
Now, he is joining a potent Ravens offense that has been seeking a dominant runner like him.
Henry is appropriately listed as somewhere between a first-round and second-round running back. That's a safe place to draft him. Just don't be surprised if at the end of the year, Henry is one of the top-scoring players in fantasy.
