The Baltimore Ravens are entering the 2024 NFL season with a Super-Bowl-or-bust mentality.
It's a reasonable goal for a team that had the NFL's best record in 2023 and hosted the AFC Championship game before falling short to the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, there is also an air of uneasiness around the Ravens. Their lone big offseason addition was Derrick Henry. They lost 60% of their starting offensive line in the offseason and are replacing them with largely unproven players. They also lost some star defensive players and are relying on their depth and young talent to replace them.
The Ravens have elite players at several positions and a talented core, but there are questions about their depth, ability to withstand injuries, and whether so many young, unproven pieces can step up as needed to compete for a Super Bowl.
ESPN's NFL analyst Bill Barnwell has many of these same concerns. In a playoff predictions piece on ESPN, Barnwell predicted the Ravens will make the playoffs — but noted that he is concerned that a few bad breaks could cause them to miss the postseason entirely.
Barnwell noted a few areas of concern:
- The Ravens' offeseason losses along the offensive line, on defense, and the coaching staff, namely defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald.
- The Ravens had the league's best turnover margin last year.
- The Ravens were the league's best red zone team last year.
- The Ravens' ability to withstand an injury to Lamar Jackson. Barnwell notes that injuries to Jackson disrupted the Ravens' 2021 and 2022 seasons.
"This team should have a 10-win floor if Jackson's available for 17 games, but if the line doesn't come together and Jackson misses time, the Ravens are at serious risk of surprisingly missing the playoffs," Barnwell wrote.
Barnwell isn't alone in seeing the downside for the Ravens' season. USA Today's Nate Davis previously predicted that the Ravens will post a winning season, but fall short of the playoffs because of a brutal schedule that has them on the outside looking in.
The Ravens should get the benefit of the doubt for many reasons: they've been dominant with Jackson healthy, they have several elite defensive players, and they have been one of the best organizations are surviving turnover and developing talent to replace key players.
Nonetheless, for a team with championship ambitions, the Ravens have an unusually high downside and a realistic path to missing the playoffs.
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