In his fourth season of predicting every game of the NFL season, Sports Illustrated's Connor Orr should leave the Atlanta Falcons and their fans demoralized in their attempts at winning the division in 2024. Orr's prediction leaves the Falcons both out of the playoffs and third in the NFC South behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints with a disappointing 8-9 record.
- Week 1: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - W (1-0)
- Week 2: @ Philadelphia Eagles - L (1-1)
- Week 3: vs. Kansas City Chiefs - L (1-2)
- Week 4: vs. New Orleans Saints - W (2-2)
- Week 5: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - W (3-2)
- Week 6: @ Carolina Panthers - L (3-3)
- Week 7: vs. Seattle Seahawks - W (4-3)
- Week 8: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - L (4-4)
- Week 9: vs. Dallas Cowboys - W (5-4)
- Week 10: @ New Orleans Saints - L (5-5)
- Week 11: @ Denver Broncos - L (5-6)
- Week 12: Bye
- Week 13: vs. Los Angeles Chargers - W (6-6)
- Week 14: @ Minnesota Vikings - L (6-7)
- Week 15: @ Las Vegas Raiders - L (6-8)
- Week 16: vs. New York Giants - L (6-9)
- Week 17: @ Washington Commanders - W (7-9)
- Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers - W (8-9)
There is a lot to buy into with this Falcons team, when you take a step back and think about it. We have to buy into the fact that Drake London is good and the Zac Robinson scheme is ideally suited for him. We have to buy into the fact that Bijan Robinson will stay healthy at the game’s most perilous position. We have to buy into Kyle Pitts again, despite his length proving to be a bit of a thorny issue. We have to buy into Kirk Cousins coming back from his Achilles tear.
Normally, when there are so many question marks, I’ll take the optimist’s view and believe half of them will work out. Let’s say Cousins and London are a good combination. Let’s say Robinson goes for 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards. Let’s say Pitts has a Sam LaPorta–like season. Would any of that hurl them over the edge in a division with some tough, salty old defenses? I have Atlanta losing in Weeks 2 and 3 to the Eagles and Chiefs, respectively, and also to Denver and New Orleans in back-to-back road trips later on in the season. This schedule is nowhere near intimidating, and it will be their ability to prove me wrong on the latter games, the winnable ones against the league’s middle class, that bear out whether the Falcons are the best of what I think they can be (an 11-victory division winner) or somewhere vying for second place.
So...a couple of things.
First, the start of the season is not as bad as it looks. The first five weeks of the season are a gauntlet of losable games.
From the juggernauts of the Eagles and Chiefs to the divisional bouts with the Bucs and Saints, coming out of that stretch with a 3-2 record is good for business. Going 5-6 before the bye is less than ideal, especially with the loss to Denver, but you live with that knowing that easier days are ahead after the bye week.
That being said, a three-game-losing streak down the stretch to the likes of Minnesota (Sam Darnold is the starter), Las Vegas (Garnder Minshew is the starter) and New York (Is Daniel Jones even going to make it this long?) would be a horrible collapse in a critical point in the season.
The amount of vitriol this fanbase would have after the win-now moves of signing Justin Simmons and trading for Matthew Judon. Oh yeah, and paying Kirk Cousins $100 million guaranteed, just to lose to Minshew, Darnold, Jones (or Lock) and rookie Bo Nix would not only be disappointing, but downright demoralizing.
All in all, this feels like an attempt by Orr to shield himself from the eventual Falconing that could occur in 2024. Atlanta's range of outcomes is one of the highest in the league, but with them not putting it all together for the better part of a decade, you can't fault the man for showing more caution in his prediction.
