Bleacher Report's Kristopher Knox attempted the impossible by predicting the trends for the NFL in the next five years. According to Knox, "recent results, recent coaching hires, college trends and some good, old-fashioned guesswork" were factors in deciphering the direction the game of football is headed in. As an Atlanta Falcons fan, looking at four trends Knox predicted seem to align with the direction that head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot seem to be headed in.
1) Run Game Resurgence
Linebackers are getting smaller, defenses are using nickel at an alarmingly high rate (67.3% per the article, an NFL record). While these lighter, faster defenses are perfect for defending and limiting explosives in the passing game, they leave defenses susceptible to the running game, especially if it is predicated on overpowering the defense.
Bijan Robinson is known for his ability to make defenders miss in a phone booth and his versatility in the passing game. But an underrated part of his game is his ability to use all 220 of his pounds and move forward after contact. Both Robinson and running mate Tyler Allgeier were top-20 in the NFL (18th & 19th actually) in yards after contact/attempt (YAC/A). Right above them in 17th was Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams. With now-Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson getting a first-hand look at how Williams, who was third in total rushing yards last season, helped Los Angeles' offense go, be prepared to get a look into the future of football with Atlanta's run game next season.
2) RBs return to prominence
Don't get a return to prominence confused with a return to the old guard where running backs are the focal points of offenses. Knox is referring to the devaluation of the running back position and how their importance in the offense will be valued in dollars and cents again. Knox believes that as teams continue to look for mismatches, the better ones are found at the running back position against the aforementioned lighter defenses.
Personally, this line of thinking seems a bit optimistic, but that's what this exercise is for. It's an attempt at predicting the future, it's difficult to get everything correct. That being said, when the time comes to pay Robinson, it will be difficult for Atlanta to justify paying a running back, regardless of where he was drafted, especially when impact players at the position can be drafted virtually anywhere in the draft every season. Not to mention the Falcons will be looking to pay the other two first-round weapons (Drake London & Kyle Pitts) before the conversation for Robinson begins.
3) Condensing the field, Optimize the space
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud took the league by storm last season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's offense. That was due to the combination of the space that Houston's condensed sets gave to the Texans receivers and the speed of Houston's receivers. The San Francisco 49ers and the Rams were all top-14 in the league in yards after catch/completion with San Francisco leading the way with a whopping 6.6 yards gained after each completion. The article also states that the 49ers used, on average, only 19.9 yards of the 53.3-yard field from sideline to sideline, the lowest ever charted by Next Gen Stats.
The beauty of Atlanta's offense is that their top weapons, London, Pitts, Bijan, Darnell Mooney, etc. can all be used either in the slot or outside. If Robinson was to use condensed sets to utilize space, especially with speedsters like Ray-Ray McCloud and Rondale Moore shifting defenses horizontally with their motions, the Falcons could be ahead of the curve.
4) Zone defenses are here to stay
One of the cheat codes on the defensive side is having the secondary talent to play a high level of man coverage. It's a simple give-and-take: If you can stick with receivers on the back end with fewer players, more of them can be utilized in getting to/muddy the picture for the quarterback. However, defenses like last year's Cleveland Browns or Kansas City Chiefs teams are not common. So, the zone defense will continue to be a staple as it helps limit explosives as efficiently as possible.
Last year, the Falcons played a lot of man coverage under now-Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen's one-high system. With Morris and defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake shifting back to a two-high, the amount of zone coverage will increase and even when the Falcons secondary gets better than the questionable unit they have now, Morris seems to be someone who will continue to play zone and key in on limiting the offense's explosive plays as opposed to playing risky and going after turnovers.
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