In what doesn’t sound like good news for backers of the USA, the two favorites on Tuesday’s World Cup card present solid value at the bet window, according to comparisons of AccuScore’s predictions to the odds offered at Las Vegas sports books.
Belgium won 52.8 percent of 10,000 simulations of its game against the U.S. performed by AccuScore, a percentage that translates into odds of -112. Belgium is listed at odds of +100 – or even money – meaning a bet on the European side is a bargain.
In Tuesday’s earlier tilt, Argentina should be a bigger favorite than the Vegas odds represent.
Here’s a quick look at the two games that will complete the quarterfinal field of the 2014 World Cup, with AccuScore forecasts and the odds they translate into matched up next to the betting lines at two Vegas bet shops – the LVH SuperBook and CG Technology. The charts are designed to help you determine which side of the wagers offer the best value (remember, the odds below are for three-way lines, meaning the bet is official after 90 minutes plus injury time; overtime and penalty shootouts do not count for the purposes of these wagers).
Argentina vs. Switzerland, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN, Sao Paulo
Argentina is a -215 favorite at the LVH, but with a 76.6 percent chance to win the game, the more appropriate odds are -327. While you probably don’t love laying more than 2-to-1, you can do so with a clear conscience in this case. Switzerland’s +650 odds aren’t lucrative enough, AccuScore data suggests, and neither is the +325 on the draw.
| Result | LVH odds | implied % | CG odds | implied % | AS odds | AS forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | +650 | 13.3 | +625 | 13.8 | +1216 | 7.6 |
| Argentina | -215 | 68.3 | -240 | 70.6 | -327 | 76.6 |
| Draw | +325 | 23.5 | +330 | 23.3 | +532 | 15.8 |
The total: The average score through 10,000 simulated games is Argentina 2.6 to Switzerland 0.7, suggesting a small lean to OVER 2.5 goals. But the -125 odds on that bet are cause for trepidation.
Props: Lionel Messi has a 61 percent to score a goal, according to AccuScore, meaning the -120 odds on the ‘yes’ side of the ‘will Messi score’ prop at the LVH offers plenty of value. Bettors should be asked to lay -156 to bet on Messi to score, based on that 61 percent chance.
USA vs. Belgium, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN, Salvador
The Stars and Stripes have just a 13.1 percent chance to beat the Belgians in regulation, which means they should be closer to +663 underdogs. The less than 3-to-1 odds in Vegas do not present a worthwhile wagering opportunity. As mentioned above, Belgium at even money is good value, as is the draw at +240.
| Result | LVH odds | implied % | CG odds | implied % | AS odds | AS forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | +290 | 25.6 | +255 | 28.2 | +663 | 13.1 |
| Belgium | +100 | 50 | +100 | 50 | -112 | 52.8 |
| Draw | +240 | 29.4 | +240 | 29.4 | +193 | 34.1 |
The total: The average simulation score of Belgium 1.1 to United States 0.4 hints at going UNDER the 2 goal total, which you can get at about +115 in Las Vegas.
Props: AccuScore gives Clint Dempsey just an 18 percent chance to score, implying odds on him getting a goal should be about +456; the LVH is offering just +375 on the ‘yes’ side of the ‘will Dempsey score’ prop.
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