Spartans, Shockers bet from dogs to favorites in Sweet 16

Matty Simo

Spartans, Shockers bet from dogs to favorites in Sweet 16 image

 

LAS VEGAS -- Last season, UConn became the first-ever No. 7 seed to win the NCAA Tournament. This season, bettors seem to believe another No. 7 seed out of the East has the potential to make it to the Final Four – and possibly further. Michigan State is that team following a second “upset” of higher-seeded Virginia in as many years. The Spartans knocked out the second-seeded Cavaliers 60-54 as 4.5-point underdogs on Sunday, one year after topping No. 1 Virginia 61-59 as a No. 4 in the Sweet 16, although they closed as 2.5-point chalk in that game.

Michigan State already has plenty of backers for Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup with No. 3 Oklahoma, going from a 1-point dog at The Wynn sports book in Las Vegas up to a 2-point favorite following the release of opening lines on Sunday night. But Johnny Avello, the Wynn’s executive director of race & sports operations, said he is still not a believer in the Spartans, which is why he opened Oklahoma -1.

“I watched quite a bit of their game (Sunday),” Avello said. “I’ll give them two things. They have an excellent defense. They have a coach that knows how to win this time of the year. The team’s not that good though, that’s the problem. Offensively, they’re just real weak. Free-throw shooting, bad.

“The team just hasn’t played well all year. They did play pretty well down the stretch of course. But when I look at them so far, they beat Georgia, who’s really bad. And they beat a Virginia team who just plays a style that can get beat by anybody. If they’re not having a good offensive day, they’re going to lose to a lot of teams. I’m just not sold on the Michigan State team yet.”

Spartans head coach Tom Izzo has historically had strong free-throw shooting teams. However, this year’s squad is making only 63 percent from the charity stripe, ranking No. 336 in the nation. They missed 13 free throws against the Cavaliers to keep their opponent within striking distance.

In the other Sweet 16 game in the East, No. 4 Louisville faces No. 8 North Carolina State, a surprise 71-68 winner over No. 1 Villanova as a 10-point underdog in the Round of 32 on Saturday. The Cardinals defeated No. 5 Northern Iowa 66-53 as 2.5-point dogs on Sunday and opened as 3-point favorites against the Wolfpack.

“One thing I’ll tell you about the Tournament, don’t ever sell teams like Louisville and Michigan State and North Carolina short," said Avello, "because when these teams get into the Tournament, they have the athletes, they recruit strong.  The players they have are great players, and those guys can elevate their game. Everybody elevates their game in the Tournament, but those guys can elevate it even more because they’re that good of players.”

The Midwest Region features another big early mover that opened as an underdog and is now the favorite in No. 7 seed Wichita State. The Shockers routed No. 2 Kansas 78-65 on Sunday, ousting their in-state rivals and earning an opportunity to play No. 3 Notre Dame on Thursday in the Sweet 16. Notre Dame opened as a 1.5-point favorite at The Wynn and became a 1-point dog within three hours.

“I like that team,” Avello said of Wichita State. “I like the guys on that team. They have some real good shooters, some real good competitors. But the Kansas team, they smoked them, and Kansas had no business being a 2 (seed). That was a 4-seeded team. It’s an impressive win. (But) Notre Dame’s a better team than Kansas is this year, so they’ll have their hands full with them, that’s for sure.”

The winner of Wichita State-Notre Dame will take on the winner between top seed Kentucky and No. 5 West Virginia in the Elite Eight. Ironically, the Shockers were 35-0 when they were upset by the now-unbeaten Wildcats in last year’s Round of 32. A rematch could happen in the Midwest Regional final this year with a berth in the Final Four on the line.

Kentucky opened as a 12.5-point favorite against West Virginia at The Wynn and has since moved to -13. Despite being the overwhelming pick to win the national championship and finish 40-0, the Wildcats have not covered either of their first two Tournament games and are one of two teams in the Sweet 16 (Arizona is the other) to be favored by double digits in each of their first three matchups.

Check updated odds for Thursday's games here, and Friday's games here.

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Matty Simo