NCAA Tournament lines: Seeding is meaningless to oddsmakers

Matty Simo

NCAA Tournament lines: Seeding is meaningless to oddsmakers image

 

LAS VEGAS -- When oddsmakers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook were busy setting opening lines for the first 32 games of the 2015 NCAA Tournament, they were concerned only with the matchups between the two teams. The seeding set by the selection committee did not matter to them when making the numbers, according to Jay Kornegay, vice president of race & sports operations at the SuperBook.

The Big Ten and Big 12 conferences led the way with seven bids apiece in the 68-team field, while the ACC and Big East each have six and the SEC five. Kornegay said he was a bit surprised by a couple of those conferences getting an excess of teams into the Big Dance while one particular team is seeded too low in his opinion, which is why the matchups are really all that matters.

“You just look at some of the seeding,” Kornegay said. “Overall, we thought the Big 12 was a little bit overrated. There was a lot of love for the Big East, which we didn’t see coming. Michigan State is a seven seed, that’s kind of crazy. They were just a 4-point favorite over a four seed (Maryland).

“We just don’t really look at the seeds to make our odds. It’s just the pure matchup.”

That logic also might explain why the West Region’s No. 1 seed, Wisconsin, opened as an 18-point favorite against No. 16 Coastal Carolina, and No. 2 Arizona was set at -21.5 versus No. 15 Texas Southern. Since then, both the Badgers and Wildcats have been bet up to -20 and -23, respectively, in early action at the SuperBook. Arizona was the top seed and Wisconsin No. 2 in the West a year ago, and the Badgers ended up beating the Wildcats 64-63 as 3.5-point underdogs in the regional final to advance to the Final Four. Oddsmakers apparently feel Arizona has the easier second-round matchup.

As of late Sunday night, the champions of the Big Ten and Pac-12 were among the biggest movers on the betting board, with just two other schools seeing similar backing from the public. In the South Region, No. 2 seed Gonzaga and No. 3 Iowa State also saw some money from bettors, who moved the Bulldogs from -16.5 to -18 against No. 15 North Dakota State and the Cyclones from -12 to -13.5 vs. No. 14 UAB.

In addition, eight other games in the Big Dance saw early line movement of at least 1 point, although none of them include the First Four games that will be played on Tuesday and Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio. Two top seeds – unbeaten Kentucky in the Midwest and Duke in the South – are awaiting winners from two of those matchups, Manhattan vs. Hampton and North Florida vs. Robert Morris.

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Kornegay said the heavily-favored Wildcats, who are even-money to win the NCAA Tournament , will have the biggest line of the second round regardless of which team moves on Tuesday between Manhattan and Hampton. And they are an obvious exception when compared to the other top seeds, including Wisconsin and Villanova as a 22.5-point favorite vs. Lafayette in the East Region.

“I think we’re projecting Kentucky will be like a 34-point spread over Hampton and a 28-point favorite over Manhattan,” Kornegay said. “That’s about as big as you’re going to see now. It used to always kind of be in the high 20s or 30s (for top seeds), and over the last five or six years, you’ve really seen those numbers drop as some of these smaller programs became better.”

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Matty Simo