Germany deserves its favorite status over Argentina in Sunday’s World Cup final, but the odds on the European side are not juicy enough to justify a wager, according to AccuScore.
Instead, Argentina, as well as the draw, present the value at the bet window.
As we’ve done for each game of the tournament, below we compare AccuScore’s forecast and the theoretical odds it translates into with the betting lines at two Las Vegas bet shops – the LVH SuperBook and William Hill. The chart is designed to illustrate which side of the bet offers the best value.
The odds discussed here are for the three-way result, meaning the bet is official after 90 minutes plus injury time; overtime does not count for the purpose of this wager.
Argentina vs. Germany, 3 p.m. ET, ABC, Rio de Janeiro
| Result | LVH odds | implied % | WH odds | implied % | AS odds | AS forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | +250 | 28.6 | +245 | 29.0 | +244 | 29.1 |
| Germany | +120 | 45.5 | +120 | 45.5 | +153 | 39.8 |
| Draw | +225 | 30.8 | +225 | 30.8 | +221 | 31.2 |
Simulating the game 10,000 times to calculate its prediction, AccuScore gives Germany a 39.8 percent chance to win the game in regulation, which translates into odds of +153. That means the +120 price on Germany at both the LVH and William Hill is not a bargain.
Argentina and the draw, however, are priced right for gamblers. Argentina won 29.1 percent of simulated games, converting to odds of +244, so the +250 at the LVH is a fine play. The +225 on the draw – which has a 31.2 percent chance of occurring – is also worth your consideration.
The total: The average score through 10,000 simulations was Germany 1.3 to Argentina 1, suggesting a small lean to OVER 2 goals while laying -120 vig.
Goal.com's pick: Writes Goal.com handicapper Phil Kitromilides, "Quite simply Germany should win, and the price for them to do so in 90 minutes will no doubt attract plenty of attention.
"This, however, has been an extremely unpredictable World Cup, which has necessitated a slightly more cautious approach to wagering, particularly in the knockout stages.
"At the risk of stating the obvious, if the Germans are to win without penalties they will need to score. Therefore, the price of -120 for them to do so before 61 minutes (offered outside of Las Vegas) is highly tempting.
"This selection has paid out in five out of Germany's six games in the tournament, and while Argentina have not conceded a goal since the group stages, the Europeans have a swaggering relentlessness about them which inspires the confidence to back them to score a goal inside the first hour of Sunday's final."
Key injury: AccuScore calculated its percentages under the assumption that Angel Di Maria will not play on Sunday. The star midfielder missed Argentina’s semifinal against the Netherlands with a thigh injury, and his absence has a huge impact on the team’s chances against Germany, AccuScore says. If Di Maria returns fit, Argentina’s chances to win in 90 minutes spike to 38.9 percent, with Germany’s dropping to 32.4 percent chance, and a draw at 28.6. Those percentages would make Argentina the theoretical favorite (+153 odds), with Germany at +209 and the draw +250.