Here we are in Week 12 of the college football season, and there are nine schools still in the BCS Championship mix. Alabama, Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State obviously have the best shots at getting to Pasadena.
But we’ve seen crazy things happen in November many times in the past, so Stanford, Missouri and Auburn are certainly still alive, and we can’t quite put Oregon and Michigan State out to pasture just yet, either
The LVH SuperBook has top-ranked Alabama as the 6-to-5 favorite to win a third consecutive national title. The next-shortest odds belong to FSU (8-to-5), Baylor (3-to-1), Ohio State (7-to-1), Oregon (15-to-1), Stanford (25-to-1), Auburn (60-to-1), Missouri (200-to-1) and Michigan State (300-to-1).
For those thinking that the one-loss teams are done, allow us to remind you of 2007. That’s when Pittsburgh won outright at West Virginia as a 28.5-point road underdog to pave the way for LSU’s only national championship on Les Miles’ watch. In 2011, Iowa State beat Oklahoma State as a 27.5-point home underdog to deny the Cowboys a shot at winning it all.
Let’s look at the scenarios for Missouri. The Tigers can capture two more quality victories for their resume, with wins at Ole Miss and vs. Texas A&M, when they come back from this week’s open date. They can also take care of Alabama by beating the Tide in the SEC Championship Game.
If those things happen, Gary Pinkel’s squad would need two of three teams to lose. FSU is least likely to fall, but it must play at Florida and in the ACC Championship Game, where it might face an elite Virginia Tech defense. Baylor could lose any of its three remaining games, while Ohio State plays at Michigan and might face the nation's premier defense (Michigan State) in the Big Ten title game.
Remember, Auburn controls its own destiny to win the SEC West. If Gus Malzahn’s team wins out, it would just need two of three undefeated teams to falter.
The one-loss SEC teams are in better shape than Oregon, Stanford and Michigan State because they would have the resume-building wins over Alabama. The non-SEC teams with one loss have shorter odds because their hopes don’t hinge on beating the Crimson Tide.
The Golden Nugget, which opened wagering on potential title game matchups back in September, has updated its board:
Alabama (-9) vs. Baylor
Alabama (-10) vs. Ohio State
Alabama (-5.5) vs. Florida State
Florida State (-6) vs. Ohio State
Florida State (-4.5) vs. Baylor
Baylor (-3) vs. Ohio State
Brian Edwards' complete column, the Weekly Read-Option, is right here at The Linemakers on Sporting News and also includes updated Heisman odds (there's a new favorite) and a few early leans for Saturday.