One favorite and one underdog offer the value when the 2014 World Cup quarterfinals kick off with a pair of marquee matchups on Friday, according to a comparison of AccuScore’s predictions and the odds hung in Las Vegas.
In the early game, a very close matchup AccuScore predicts, France is a solid play as more than a 2-to-1 dog against Germany.
In the later game, one of South American heavyweights, Brazil is a bargain at just under even money vs. Colombia.
Here is a quick look at both of Friday’s contests, with AccuScore forecasts – which are based on 10,000 simulations of each game – and the odds they translate into stacked up next to the betting lines at two Las Vegas bet shops – the LVH SuperBook and CG Technology. The charts are designed to help you determine which sides of the wagers offer the best value. We also touch on totals and props.
Remember, the numbers below are based on the three-way line, meaning the bet is official after 90 minutes plus injury time; overtime does not count for the purposes of these wagers. Goal-scoring props at the LVH, however, do include overtime.
Germany vs. France, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2, Rio de Janiero
Germany rates slightly better than France, winning 37 percent of simulated games to the 34.8 percent won by France. That means Germany should be about a +170 favorite, and France should be +187. France, therefore, at +220 odds, is a worthwhile underdog, while Germany's price of +140 is not lucrative enough.
| Result | LVH odds | implied % | CG odds | implied % | AS odds | AS forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | +140 | 41.7 | +140 | 41.7 | +170 | 37 |
| France | +220 | 31.3 | +185 | 35.1 | +187 | 34.8 |
| Draw | +210 | 32.3 | +225 | 30.8 | +255 | 28.2 |
The total: Through 10,000 simulations, the average score is Germany 1.5 to France 1.4, suggesting a lean to OVER the posted total of 2.5 goals. OVER is the +130 underdog at the LVH, which makes the play even more enticing, but we’ve seen the goal-scoring pace slow considerably in these knockout stage games.
Props: With a 39 percent chance to find the back of the net, Germany's Thomas Muller is a good bet to score a goal at odds of +175 at the LVH. The more appropriate odds are +156.
Brazil vs. Colombia, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN, Fortaleza, ESPN
AccuScore gives Brazil a 63.5 percent chance to beat Colombia, translating into odds of about -174. So priced by multiple Vegas books at -120, the hosts are a fine bet on Friday.
| Result | LVH odds | implied % | CG odds | implied % | AS odds | AS forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | +320 | 23.8 | +300 | 25 | +614 | 14 |
| Brazil | -120 | 54.6 | -120 | 54.6 | -174 | 63.5 |
| Draw | +270 | 27 | +255 | 28.2 | +344 | 22.5 |
The total: The average simulation score is Brazil 1.9 to Colombia 0.8, which puts it just OVER the 2.5 goal total. With UNDER priced at -120 at CG Technology, though, it might be a total to leave alone.
Props: While his health is an issue ahead of this game, Neymar scored in 44 percent of simulated games, translating into theoretical odds of about +127. The LVH’s props board has Neymar priced at +125 to score a goal, with the ‘no’ side of the prop offered at -145.
For all of World Cup coverage, including Goal.com's picks on these games, head over to The Linemakers on Sporting News' soccer section.