LAS VEGAS -- Saturday’s ACC matchup between the top-ranked Florida State Seminoles and 14th-ranked Clemson Tigers has given the public a good idea of how much Jameis Winston is worth to the betting line. The defending national champion Seminoles opened as 20.5-point favorites at The Wynn sports book in Las Vegas and have dropped to -12.5 at one Vegas shop as of Saturday morning following news late Friday that their starting quarterback and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Winston would miss the entire game with redshirt sophomore Sean Maguire set to make his first career start in his place. UPDATE: As of Saturday afternoon, the Wynn Las Vegas had the Seminoles listed as 10.5-point favorites.
Florida State’s current 18-game winning streak features two bowl victories and 12 covers against the spread, but none in their past three games, including last year’s 34-31 win over Auburn in the BCS Championship Game. Count Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, as one of the oddsmakers in Las Vegas who has not been impressed with the Seminoles’ play on the field – and their behavior off it so far this year.
“I don’t know how they’re going to play to be honest with you," Avello said. "They haven’t looked that good so far. The problem with this team that I see is the lack of motivation. They won the national championship, they were very lethargic in that game in the first three quarters, and they were very fortunate to win that game. They seem like a team that has trouble getting motivated.
“So as a bettor, as a handicapper, as an oddsmaker, it’s hard to make a line on them right now. Last year they were covering every week, but they didn’t cover the national championship game. Now that they’ve won, when are they turning the switch on? I don’t know when that is, but they’re capable of doing a lot of damage. With that being said, I just don’t know what to do with them.”
Bettors clawing down odds on Arizona
One of the last college football games on Saturday night takes place in Tucson, where the 32nd-ranked Arizona Wildcats will host the 63rd-ranked California Golden Bears in a key Pac-12 game for both unbeaten teams. Cal has covered the spread in the last three meetings along with seven of the past nine, and Avello said the Bears have surprised him a bit by garnering a lot of early support from bettors, who have moved them from 14-point road underdogs down to +7.5.
“That was probably a mistake on my part opening up that high,” Avello said. “Arizona struggled with Reno, struggled with Texas-San Antonio. The only team they beat was UNLV, and you know the story on them, not too good of a football team.
“Cal at Northwestern, they won. You look at their games versus Arizona, last year at home they were getting 16, lost by five. They were getting six a couple years ago at Arizona and lost by one, and the year before that they lost by eight. So they’ve played the team very tough and they look to be an improved team this year.”
Oklahoma-West Virginia line continues to drop
One of Saturday’s most intriguing games comes in the Big 12, where the third-ranked Oklahoma Sooners visit the 23rd-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers. The Sooners opened as 14-point favorites at The Wynn and have moved down to -7.5, with many bettors believing they could struggle to beat West Virginia in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have covered the spread in the last three meetings, including the past two years.
“I believe Oklahoma is a better team than they were both of those years,” Avello said. “I think West Virginia is ok. I think what you hang your hat on here is the game against Alabama, the first game of the year, they only lost by 10. You look at that, you look at them at home, and you feel that maybe they can hang around with Oklahoma.”
Badgers growing favorites off bye
One of the biggest line moves in the favorite’s favor so far this week involves the 20th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers, who opened as 21-point favorites against the 90th-ranked Bowling Green Falcons and have been bet up to -27.5 at The Wynn. The Badgers are coming off a bye while the Falcons upset another Big Ten team in the Indiana Hoosiers last week 45-42 as 8-point home underdogs.
“I don’t expect them to lose this game,” Avello said of Wisconsin. “It’s a very tough home field. Wisconsin plays South Florida next week, so there’s nothing they’re looking ahead to. And then when you look at their whole schedule going out, to me there’s only one tough game on the whole schedule, and that’s Nebraska. They should run this table. I’ll tell you what, I think we’re going to need Bowling Green by the time this game goes off.”
Other notable Week 4 college football line moves
Alabama -19 to -14 at home vs. FloridaMemphis -6 to -11.5 at home vs. Middle Tennessee State
Wake Forest -2.5 to +2.5 at home vs. Army
Rice -11 to -6.5 at home vs. Old Dominion
Toledo -10 to -14 at home vs. Ball State