LAS VEGAS – Back on Monday, Johnny Avello did not think Alabama would be any higher than a 7-point favorite heading into Saturday’s SEC showdown with No. 1 Mississippi State. Avello, The Wynn’s executive director of race & sports operations, opened the Crimson Tide at -7 last Sunday but has since seen the number move to -9 at his sports book while other shops around town are as high as -9.5.
“The first thing that came to mind when I see this game moving is, is Dak Prescott not playing?” Avello said of the Mississippi State quarterback and Heisman Trophy contender. “The game to me, it’s a touchdown game. I do realize that Alabama’s beaten this team a bunch of times in a row, and none of the games have been close. But I think this is a different Mississippi State team that they’re playing here.”
Avello is right about that. The unbeaten Bulldogs have lost the last six meetings with the Crimson Tide by an average of more than 22 points per game, going 2-4 against the spread. However, Avello does not seem to be buying into the Alabama hype right now and still thinks the number will come back Mississippi State’s way.
“I always respect the Alabama program, I respect the home field there – they’ve only lost like 10 times there in 10 years,” Avello said. “But this isn’t Texas A&M. And Alabama hasn’t been home in a while either. They were on the road for a couple tough games. I just don’t know why this game’s getting pushed up this way. The only thing I can think of is it’s getting pushed up higher so that it can be bet back later. It just seems high to me.”
Both teams obviously have a lot to gain by a victory here, as not only is the SEC West title on the line, but each of them are also angling for a spot in the top four of the first-ever College Football Playoff. The Crimson Tide are just outside the top four at No. 5 while the Bulldogs are fighting to keep the No. 1 ranking for the rest of the season. Avello said Mississippi State has come a long way since the start of the season but is lacking more respect now from bettors than back then. According to OddsShark.com, a top-ranked team has not been this big of an underdog during the regular season in 20 years.
“Back in September, Mississippi State went to LSU, and they opened as a 10-point underdog, and they closed at 7,” Avello said. “And of course they won that game, but that’s when we knew they were pretty good, we didn’t know how good. After that, they went on to beat A&M, Auburn badly, Arkansas. Here they go to Alabama and getting close to 10 points, it just seems weird to me. I think the game’s going to make a move back the other way.”
Bowl eligibility becoming motivational factor
One of the biggest line moves of the week has come in an ACC matchup with North Carolina State hosting Wake Forest on Saturday. The Wolfpack opened as a 12.5-point favorite at The Wynn and has jumped to -16.5 as of Friday afternoon. Despite sitting at 1-5 in conference play, they can earn win No. 6 by beating the Demon Deacons and become bowl eligible. Avello said that’s why bettors are playing them.
“This move is all about bowl eligibility,” Avello said. “Because if they don’t win this game, they’re at North Carolina in two weeks. That’s why the players are playing this side, they think there’s going to be some extra motivation here.”
Other major Week 12 college football line moves
--Utah State from -15 up to -19 at home vs. New Mexico
--Marshall from -19 up to -22 at home vs. Rice (click here for more on this game)
--BYU from -23.5 up to -26.5 at home vs. UNLV
--Wisconsin from -4 up to -6.5 at home vs. Nebraska (click here for more on this game)
--Texas from Pick’em up to -2.5 at Oklahoma State
--Florida from -4.5 up to -7 at home vs. South Carolina
--Idaho from -3 up to -6 at home vs. Troy
--Nevada from -1 down to to +2 at Air Force
--Boise State from -16 down to -13.5 at home vs. San Diego State
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