AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the football season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply, it’s a recommended play.
Here’s a pick for this week’s NCAA football card:
Although Virginia Tech has won 10 of the last 14 meetings against Virginia, Friday night’s matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU) should be a much more competitive affair than recent trends suggest. Virginia Tech will try to bounce back after a 6-3 overtime loss at Wake Forest – a game that was surprisingly scoreless after four quarters.
Virginia Tech is offered at -105 odds on the money-line at William Hill, with Virginia the -115 favorite.
After 10,000 simulations, AccuScore gives Virginia Tech a 54 percent chance of winning, suggesting the Hokies should be at about a -120 favorite. The projection makes Va Tech a mildly attractive play at -105.
While the average score through the 10,000 sims is 29-27, the posted total on the game is about 40.5. If you play the OVER, though, you'll be going against some significant trends: the last six Virginia games have stayed UNDER, five of the last six Va Tech games have stayed UNDER, and the last four meetings between these teams have stayed UNDER.
Given how close the final score is projected to be, turnovers are especially crucial. Virginia commits fewer turnovers in 27 percent of simulations, winning 56 percent of these games. Virginia Tech wins 69 percent of simulated games in which they commit fewer turnovers.
The rushing attack for both sides have quite a bit of impact in the simulations. Virginia running back Kevin Parks averages 59 rushing yards per simulated game. If he has a performance with greater than 59 yards and at least one rushing touchdown – of which there’s a 24 percent chance – the Cavaliers’ winning probability goes from 46 percent to 59 percent.
If Virginia Tech RB J.C. Coleman runs for more than 48 yards and has at least one TD (24 percent chance), the Hokies’ winning probability goes from 54 percent to 72 percent. Coleman rushed for 98 yards last week vs. Wake Forest.
Supporting Trend: Virginia Tech is 5-0 straight up (SU) in its last five games when playing at home against Virginia.
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