LAS VEGAS – Arkansas ended its 17-game losing streak in SEC play with a 17-0 home win over LSU last week and will look to make it two conference wins in a row against Ole Miss on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS). The Razorbacks were 1-point favorites over the Tigers and are small underdogs this week versus a Rebels team that still has a lot to play for down the stretch.
The Line: Ole Miss -3.5, Total: 45.5
Line movement: Ole Miss opened as a 3.5-point road favorite at The Wynn on Sunday, and the spread has bounced between -3 and -3.5. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: Ole Miss is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Arkansas....Arkansas is 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in its last five home games at Fayetteville....Arkansas is 1-17 SU in its last 18 home games against SEC opponents (8-10 ATS)....The UNDER is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings....The UNDER is 5-0 in Ole Miss’ last five road games against SEC opponents....The UNDER is 4-0 in Arkansas’ last four home games against SEC opponents.
Ole Miss still focused on playoff: While most of the focus in Fayetteville on Saturday will probably be on the Razorbacks finally ending their two-year drought without a victory in SEC play, the Rebels have much more riding on this game and should be highly motivated. Despite losing two games, Ole Miss still has something no other team in the latest edition of the College Football Playoff rankings possesses right now – a win over No. 1 Alabama.
With Rivalry Week on deck, a lot can happen to change the first four teams. And Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s executive director of race & sports operations, is not counting the Rebels out just yet. Avello thinks Ole Miss beating Arkansas and then Mississippi State next week in the Egg Bowl, coupled with a home loss by the Crimson Tide against Auburn, could be enough to vault the Rebels into one of the top spots.
“If they beat Arkansas, that’s a half-quality win,” Avello said. “But then beating Mississippi State is a real big win. If something happened where Alabama lost to Auburn or something, it’s still a possibility. They’ve still got an outside shot.”
Avello believes Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze has likely instilled that message in his players over the last few weeks since the team suffered the second of two consecutive losses to Auburn on Nov. 1. A 48-0 rout of Presbyterian two weeks ago is the only other time the Rebels have seen the field in November.
“I’m sure they went in there and just worked on some things,” Avello said of the win over the Blue Hose. “(Ole Miss) is actually going to have off three weeks. They’ve had a lot of time to get ready for this one. Personally, I think (Arkansas is) going to be in a little bit of trouble this week. I don’t think this line’s staying at 3 either. I think this line’s going up.”
So what about that slump-busting victory for the Razorbacks last week over LSU? Bettors should take it with a grain of salt, according to Avello, who noted the Tigers have scored 23 points combined in their past three games while Ole Miss is averaging 33.4 per game. He said he expects a much higher-scoring game this week, and Arkansas should be prepared to top its scoring average of 34 points if the team is going to put together back-to-back SEC wins for the first time since 2012.
“That’s the best defensive game they’ve played in a really long time, shutting a team down like that,” Avello said. “But LSU is not a scoring team anyway. The game went the way I thought it would probably go. It was right where I thought it would be.
“Now this game right here, they’re going to have to score a little bit more I think against Mississippi. This game is not going to go that way. This game is going to be a point-scoring game. The winner in this game is probably going to have 35 points or more.”
Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 60s, partly cloudy skies and a 20 percent chance of rain. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | Power Ratings | MISS team page | ARK team page
The Linemakers' lean: Our guys in Vegas are on different sides of this game. Brian Blessing likes the Rebels thanks largely to their defense and a potential letdown spot for Arkansas, who just won its first SEC contest of the season. He urges you to shop for -3. Richie Baccellieri, though, is back on the the Razorbacks, citing their SEC-best 8-2 mark ATS and their motivation to become bowl eligible. They've covered seven of eight games, which indicates the betting lines hasn't caught up to them, and they've kept games against Alabama, Miss State and Texas A&M very close. According to our ratings, just 2 points separate these clubs on a neutral field, so when home field is factored in, value is on Arkansas.
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