After winning and covering the spread against Florida State in the Rose Bowl, Oregon goes up against Ohio State in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game on Monday night in Arlington, Tex. (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
All signs point to Oregon winning its first-ever title.
After simulating the game 10,000 times, AccuScore has Oregon as a 68.2 percent favorite to win the game outright, which translates into money-line odds of about -215. The day before the game, William Hill and CG Technology were both dealing the Ducks at -190, and while that’s a favorable number to lay based on AccuScore projections, we’ll look elsewhere for our recommended play.
Live odds: Current Ohio State-Oregon spreads and totals
With an average score after 10,000 simulations of 45-34, there’s a 58.6 percent chance the Ducks cover a 5.5-point spread*, a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
Also, there's nearly a 57 percent chance the total combined score goes OVER 74.5, also a three-star hot trend. In a supporting trend, 12 of Ohio State's last 13 games have gone OVER the total.
Notes: Since 2007, Oregon is 5-1 against Big 10 competition. …Ducks WR Darren Carrington ineligible for the championship game. …The last time these two sides played, Ohio State covered the spread as 4.5-point underdogs and defeated Oregon 26-17 in the 2010 Rose Bowl.
*This pick was made when Oregon was available at -5.5. At -6, the Ducks have a 56.5 percent chance to cover, according to AccuScore.
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