A pair of equally hot SEC teams square off in Baton Rouge on Saturday as the Mississippi State Bulldogs visit the LSU Tigers (7 p.m. ET, ESPN). Both schools are unbeaten this season at 3-0, but LSU owns a 14-game winning streak in the series starting in 2000, with the Tigers covering the spread 11 times, including the last four meetings.
The Line: LSU -9.5, Total: 49.5
Line movement and notes: LSU opened -10 at The Wynn sports book in Las Vegas and was bet down to -9.5 there and at several other Vegas venues. There were even some -9s around town on Wednesday. For updated lines from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: LSU is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with Mississippi State. LSU is 3-6-1 ATS in last 10 games vs. SEC opponents.
Mississippi State is 3-1 ATS in its last four road games vs. SEC opponents. Mississippi State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as road underdogs.
Per Brian Edwards' Weekly Read-Option, LSU is 24-34-1 ATS as a home favorite during Les Miles' 10-year tenure. Miss State is 5-10 ATS in 15 games as road underdogs on coach Dan Mullen's watch.
Tigers own Bulldogs: Some may argue Mississippi State is a much different team this year, one fully capable of breaking through and finally beating LSU. Then again, the Bulldogs probably feel like that every year, trying to forget about the past and instead simply focus on the only thing they can try to control, their upcoming game.
Mullen echoed those sentiments this week and has his team prepared for Saturday’s game that will show him more about where the program stands. His Bulldogs are 2-1 against the spread following a 35-3 road victory at South Alabama last week as 14-point favorites after winning their first two at home by a combined score of 96-34.
“All that matters is this week,” Mullen said. “Every game that's ever been played there has no impact on this game. Every game that we've played against them has no impact on this game. Every game we'll play against them in the future has no impact on this game. It's all about this week, our focus and our execution.”
LSU thrives under the lights: It’s bad enough for the Bulldogs that the Tigers have not allowed a point in roughly 10 quarters and have absolutely dominated the series with them over the past 14 years. But LSU is also 43-3 in night games at Death Valley under Miles, and this matchup became a primetime game on Sept. 8 when ESPN decided to put it in this time slot.
Even though Mississippi State is not ranked in either the AP Top 25 or USA Today Coaches Poll, Miles said he has a lot of respect for his opponent, and he believes the Tigers will need to put forth their best effort to extend their winning streak to 15. LSU is ranked No. 8 in both polls.
“'Mississippi State should easily be a ranked team,” Miles said. “I can't imagine they're not ranked. They have all the abilities that you would see in a ranked team. You look at Mississippi State film and they call you to play best. We're going to have to earn the victory and we recognize that.”
In the latest Don Best/Linemakers College Football Power Ratings, the Tigers and Bulldogs are separated by 18 spots and 7.5 points, with LSU (118) sitting at No. 10 and Mississippi State (111.5) tied for No. 28. An upset here would definitely shake things up and give the SEC yet another national title contender, joining the likes of Alabama and Auburn.
Weather: The forecast calls for high temperatures, around 89 degrees, with cloudiness and a 30 percent chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping help: Mississippi State-LSU matchup analysis | MSST team page | LSU team page
The Linemakers' lean: LSU has absolutely owned Miss State, most recently evidenced by a 59-26 win in Starkville last season. The Tigers covered as 7-point favorites in that game, yet are being asked to lay only 10 points this time around. And it's not just LSU the Bulldogs can't get past - Mullen just can't get it done against the elite SEC teams.
In terms of the total, these teams score a lot of points when they get together, going OVER in eight of their last 10 meetings.
The plays are LSU and OVER.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
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