LAS VEGAS – LSU will try to beat Texas A&M for the fourth year in a row when the Tigers visit the Aggies on Thanksgiving Day (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Both teams have struggled over the past month, covering the number once in five games between them.
The Line: LSU -3, Total: 50.5
Line movement: LSU opened as a 2-point road favorite at The Wynn on Sunday and moved up to -3 in early wagering. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: LSU is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings with Texas A&M....LSU is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five road games against SEC opponents....Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games against SEC opponents....The UNDER is 3-1-1 in LSU’s last five road games against SEC opponents....The OVER is 6-1 in Texas A&M’s last seven home games against SEC opponents.
Texas A&M not covering at Kyle Field: The Aggies will get one last opportunity to beat the spread one more time at home this season on Thursday after going 0-4 against the spread in their past four games there. The last time they covered at Kyle Field was in their home opener against Lamar when they routed the Cardinals 73-3 as 46.5-point favorites back on Sept. 6.
However, Texas A&M’s lack of a home-field advantage is just one of the team’s concerns during a downturn that actually started en route to a 5-0 start. The Aggies saw warning signs when they needed overtime to beat Arkansas 35-28 for their fifth win of the season on Sept. 27, failing to cover as 9.5-point home favorites. In fact, they have covered only one game since crushing SMU 58-6 as 33.5-point road chalk on Sept. 20.
The highlight of Texas A&M’s season came in upsetting Auburn 41-38 less than three weeks ago as a 23.5-point road underdog. But that stunning win followed a close 21-16 home victory against Louisiana-Monroe in which the Aggies were favored by 32 points. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s executive director of race & sports operations, said their roller-coaster season made it difficult for him to put a line on this game, especially since they are playing at home.
“I struggled with this game a little bit because I wanted to make A&M the favorite,” Avello said. “The reason I wanted to is because LSU just has a rough time scoring. The offense has really sputtered. Defensively, they’re playing ok. They beat this team the last three years, so there’s got to be a little motivation for A&M. I know A&M, it’s just been a poor season all-around. Expectations were much higher, especially the first game of the year beating South Carolina and starting off the season 5-0. Then all of a sudden the wheels came off.
“I saw this game as maybe Texas A&M (minus) 1, and then the more I thought about it, I’ll probably use LSU the favorite," he added. "They’ll probably bet them a little bit. So I kind of changed my thinking a little bit there.”
No bargain: The Tigers have not been much better than the Aggies lately, going 4-4 straight-up and against the spread in their last eight games and scoring 23 points combined over their past three. Those numbers have made it hard to justify them as the favorites in this spot, according to Avello.
“LSU is no bargain, I’ll tell you that,” Avello said. “Not the way they’re playing. If it comes down to scoring, you would think A&M would have a shot because they’re a much better scoring team than LSU is.”
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | Power Ratings | LSU team page | TAM team page
The Linemakers' lean: While LSU's offense has been inept, the Aggies have to face a much better defense than the ones they've had success against. We're not sure where the points are going to come from in this game. LSU has played four in a row -- and five of its last six -- UNDER. We're going to ride that trend here. UNDER 50.5 is the play.
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