AccuScore: Kansas State worth a money-line play at Baylor

Rohit Ghosh for AccuScore

AccuScore: Kansas State worth a money-line play at Baylor image

AccuScore ’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the football season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply, it’s a recommended play.

Here’s a pick for this week’s NCAA football card:

Baylor can wrap up the Big 12 conference title this Saturday when it hosts Kansas State (7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN).  

Kansas State is offered at money-line odds of +270 at CG Technology on Las Vegas, which implies a 27 percent chance to win the game outright.  AccuScore simulations suggest the Wildcats have a much better chance than that.

After 10,000 simulations, AccuScore gives Kansas State a 43 percent chance of winning, which translates into money-line odds of +130.  At +270, K-State offers plenty of value.

Baylor is listed as a 7.5- to 8.5-point favorite at various betting venues in Vegas. In its last four games as an underdog, K-State is actually 3-1 ATS and 2-2 SU. They Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups with Baylor, but most importantly, have an impressive 14-2 ATS record in their previous 16 games as a road underdog.

The average score though the sims is 38-34.

Visit AccuScore.com for more college football picks

Rohit Ghosh for AccuScore