A fumble, an unsportsmanlike conduct call, any decision on any field in any November. This is where College Football Playoff dreams live and die.
The safest, surest way to make it through the madness is fairly simple.
"We can't worry about anything but next week," Ohio State wideout Evan Spencer said. "Winning solves everything."
With four weeks remaining in the regular season, we're still far from clearing up the race for the sport's new postseason. A look at Four In and Four Out, heading into the CFP's third ranking of the season on Tuesday:
1. Oregon: The most complete team in the nation. Winning at Utah — a pit of a place — and scoring 50-plus on that stout Utes defense should be enough to convince anyone. When this team is healthy (see: offensive line), no one can stop its offense. The Ducks will eventually figure it out on defense any week of the season. Up next: bye week.
2. Alabama: The true sign of a great team? Going on the road and playing in college football's toughest environment, getting essentially nothing from your passing game (or run game for most of the game), and finding a way to win. Those final 55 seconds of regulation to tie the game were a thing of beauty. We find out just how good this team is next weekend. Up next: Mississippi State.
3. Florida State: It's not always going to be pretty. In fact, it has been fairly ugly for most of the season. But it doesn't really matter. When the 'Noles need it, something big — and critically good — happens every single time. Up next: at Miami (Fla.).
4. Mississippi State: We're not giving bonus points for playing every week — or for winning every game. Those wins over LSU and Auburn seem like three months ago, and Mississippi State hasn't done anything since to make anyone think it has the best team in the nation. The Bulldogs will get that chance next weekend. Up next: at Alabama.
5. Baylor: So here we are with the CFP selection committee's big conundrum. Baylor beat TCU, and if the committee digs deep in that game — as they have said they will with particular head-to-head matchups and comparative games — it wasn't nearly as close as that last-second field goal suggests. The Bears gave Oklahoma the worst beating in Norman in the Bob Stoops era — the same Oklahoma team that TCU beat at home in the last minute of the game. You can't penalize Baylor because it hasn't played Kansas State like TCU has; you can only go on head-to-head and comparative scores. Up next: bye week.
6. TCU: The Horned Frogs looked impressive again in a key Big 12 games, and now must navigate at Kansas and Texas and against Iowa State to keep playoff hopes alive. The problem: TCU needs Baylor to lose, or it can't win the Big 12 (Baylor will) and can't jump Baylor. Up next: at Kansas.
7. Ohio State: No one this side of Oregon is playing better than the Buckeyes. With three recruiting classes Urban Meyer built this team with strength on the lines of scrimmage and speed all over the field. He has remade the Buckeyes into an SEC team. But all of that can't overshadow the ugly loss at home to Virginia Tech, a team that gets worse with each passing week. Up next: at Minnesota.
8. Arizona State: All it took was a big win over Notre Dame for everyone to notice what Todd Graham is doing in the desert. His teams were 5-5 in his first 10 games, and are 21-5 since. Only Oregon (22-4) in the Pac-12 has a better record since. The goal: Keep winning and get a shot at Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game to state your case for the committee. Up next: at Oregon State.