LAS VEGAS – Defending national champion Florida State has a lot to prove after dropping in the latest edition of the College Football Playoff rankings and faces its biggest test of the season in visiting intrastate rival Miami on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, ABC). The Seminoles fell from No. 2 to No. 3 and will put their 25-game winning streak on the line against a Hurricanes team that has covered the spread in their last four games as home underdogs.
The Line: Florida State -1.5, Total: 62
Line movement: Florida State opened as a 3-point road favorite at The Wynn on Sunday but progressively came down in early wagering, getting chopped in half to -1.5 at The Wynn and other shops around town. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: Florida State is 25-0 SU in its last 25 games, going 14-11 ATS....Florida State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games....Florida State is 4-0 in the last four meetings with Miami, going 2-2 ATS....Miami is 6-1 SU in its last seven home games against ACC opponents....Miami is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against ACC opponents....Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog.
The OVER is 9-0 in Florida State’s last nine games against ACC opponents....The UNDER is 9-0 in Miami’s last nine games as a home underdog....The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings.
Florida State laying less than a field goal: The last time the Seminoles were favored by less than 3 points, they were actually underdogs back in 2011 at Clemson in a game they lost 35-30 in the midst of a three-game skid. This according to the OddsShark College Football Database, which also shows Florida State’s smallest spread during its school-record winning streak coming two weeks ago in a 42-31 victory at Louisville as a 3.5-point favorite.
The difference between this season’s Seminoles team and last year’s national champs? The spreads were much bigger in 2013, and they were still covering. Florida State closed as a double-digit favorite in every game last season and went 11-3 against the spread en route to a perfect 14-0 campaign. This year, the Seminoles will close as single-digit chalk at least four times – including this week’s game at Miami – and they have covered only two of nine games so far.
Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s executive director of race & sports operations, has another opinion on why Florida State has not been nearly the same team in 2014. One word – defense.
“Defensively, this team last year was so strong,” Avello said of the Seminoles. “If they needed to shut somebody down, they could shut somebody down. I don’t see that this year. Miami’s defense is better than theirs so far.”
“What this team has done is that they match scores with teams, and then they’ve been able to get the last score to win the game. That Notre Dame game, they probably should have lost. That’s what their MO’s been this year. It’s not like they need a defensive stop to win a game, and they get it. That’s not what they’re doing this year.”
Avello’s right on the money. In 2013, Florida State ranked No. 3 in the country in total defense, giving up 281 yards per game. The Seminoles also ranked No. 1 in points allowed, surrendering 12.1 per game. In 2014, they are not ranked in the Top 30 in either category. In fact, they are allowing opponents to gain 93 additional yards and score 10 more points per game this year.
The one common denominator for Florida State though has been quarterback Jameis Winston, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner who is not even in the discussion again this year. That’s partially due to his off-the-field issues, but he has also thrown six interceptions in the past three games combined and already has totaled more this season (11) than he did all of last year (10).
Avello said Winston continues to be the driving force behind this Seminoles team whether good or bad. And they have seemed to take on his personality a lot more than in 2013.
“They’re an enigma,” Avello said. “They’re definitely not as good as they were last year, that’s for sure. But Jameis Winston seems to turn it on when he wants to turn it on. He plays with fire every game. Is he going to get burned one of these games? He probably is, and is this the game? Maybe, I don’t know. We’ll see.”
Miami’s biggest game since glory years: Of course with the spotlight shining brightly on Florida State, it’s easy to forget the Hurricanes have put together one of their best years in recent memory. Despite their three losses, they have played very well lately and are in position to beat a higher-ranked Seminoles team for the first time since 2009 as 6-point underdogs. You have to go all the way back to 1990 to find the last time Florida State was ranked No. 2 in the country by the media and got upset by Miami. Like this matchup, both of those games also took place at home.
Avello said he has a lot of respect for what the Hurricanes have accomplished this season. However, he also said he expects the Seminoles to be fully motivated for one of the few times in 2014.
“Miami has had a great season,” Avello said. “They don’t have a loss at home. They play Florida State every year, they really haven’t been close the last two. It’s a good spot for Miami, but they’re going to have to play a really solid game to win this.”
“Florida State is one of those teams, I think they like to toy with teams, and get behind and then make a run. They may come into this game very highly motivated. Because when you look at previous games, the only game I think that they kind of got ready for and played well in the second half was Notre Dame. They really haven’t had a tough schedule to get motivated for anybody.”
Weather: The forecast calls for light winds, clear skies and temperatures in the upper 60s. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | Power Ratings | FSU team page | MIA team page
The Linemakers' lean: We’re on opposite sides on this game. Kenny White likes the points with a drastically improved Miami squad hitting on all cylinders. Micah Roberts thinks laying less than a field goal with Florida State is a gift. Micah believes FSU's rating has dropped way too much, despite covering only two of nine games this season. White also likes the UNDER here, envisioning a defensive battle.
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