1. Extra motivation
So let me try to understand this: Florida State has won four straight over Miami, is better at every position on the field except one, and has a history of playing well in big games over the last two seasons.
And the ‘Noles are as little as a one-point favorite over the Canes in some Vegas books?
Something doesn’t jibe here. But leave it to the good folks at the College Football Playoff to make it all better.
When the CFP selection committee released its rankings earlier this week, the move of one-loss Oregon ahead of unbeaten FSU did what no pre-game speech from ‘Noles coach Jimbo Fisher could:
It galvanized the most talented — and most bored and indifferent — team in the game and allowed them to zero in on a rivalry that has become just another game. For the first time this season, FSU feels disrespected.
And as we’ve seen time and again with teenagers and young adults, nothing has more impact, has more lasting power, than telling them (insert name) thinks they’re not as good as they think they are. Why Oregon — whose resume is no better than FSU’s and includes, you know, a loss — was moved ahead of the ‘Noles is irrelevent.
All that matters is the team that still hasn’t played its best game of the season; that still looks out of sync every time it steps on the field before it eventually flips the switch to win another game, now has something that every single person in the organization — from the head coach to the guy washing uniforms — can relate to.
That’s a dangerous thing, especially when Miami’s only advantage over FSU is tailback Duke Johnson. Make no mistake, Johnson is an elite runner — probably the most complete in the game — but one player can be taken out of a game, or at least limited.
FSU will load the line of scrimmage to stop Johnson, and force the Canes to win by throwing the ball with freshman Brad Kaaya. It seems easy enough, but the ‘Noles have been in this same situation time and again this season.
The better team, the better players (by a wide margin in every game), and yet they’re still trying to close out games in the fourth quarter. This team needs one game, one moment, to reclaim that edge it had last season and start playing like the team best equipped to win it all.
The one moment is Oregon’s rise. The one game is a rivalry they’ve won seven of the last nine times, where they haven't lost in Miami in a decade.
Everyone, finally, is on the same page.
2. This is how we learn
So now we watch. Yep, that’s what it has come to.
The focus is now on another team and another game instead of the team and game in question. Why, you ask?
Because the 12-member College Football Playoff selection committee has decided that, despite a head-to-head result, the team that lost is still better than the team that won because — are you ready for this? — the team that lost has a stronger non-conference schedule.
Really.
Only this week, the CFP gets to analyze two potential semifinalists with one game: Ohio State at Minnesota. The Buckeyes, after last week’s impressive win at Michigan State, are suddenly surging after being ignored for much of the season because of a horrible home loss to Virginia Tech.
So now the CFP can judge Ohio State this week against a solid Big Ten team — and at the same time, continue to judge TCU.
That’s right, TCU.
Because TCU beat Minnesota in September, the Gophers can control how much better (or worse) TCU’s loss to Baylor looks. I know, it’s confusing. But this is what you get when you refuse to embrace the rational concept of one team beating the other.
Meanwhile, in Durham, N.C., the CFP will take a long look at five-loss Virginia Tech as it plays Duke. Why? Because if the Hokies upset the Blue Devils, that means the Buckeyes’ 14-point home loss to VT in September won’t look so bad.
Seriously, you can’t make up this stuff.
3. Sorting out the SEC
Finally, some sanity in the big, bad SEC. After weeks of uncertainty, it all comes down to the two teams everyone thought would be there in the end, anyway.
If Alabama beats No. 1 Mississippi State in Tuscaloosa, and Georgia beats Auburn in Athens, the two favorites to play in the SEC Championship Game will each be one game away from making it happen.
Alabama would then need a win over Auburn in Tuscaloosa in two weeks, and Georgia would need a loss by Missouri over the next three weeks (the Tigers could lose all three: at Texas A&M, at Tennessee, Arkansas).
If Mississippi State beats Alabama, the Bulldogs need only a victory over Vanderbilt next week in Starkville to return to the SEC Championship Game for the first time since 1998.
If Auburn beats Georgia, the East gets a little dicey. Even with the loss, Georgia can still win the East if Missouri loses two of its last three games and Florida loses to South Carolina on Saturday.
If Georgia loses and Florida wins, the Gators win the East if Missouri loses twice (one must be at Tennessee). Of course, there’s always the easy way: Missouri winning out and winning the East.
But at this point, that might be the most unlikely of options.
4. The Wild West
It's almost fitting, really. Who among us could tell the difference in teams if you took the top four from the Big Ten West Division — Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa — changed uniforms and reshuffled?
Now, get this: over the next three weeks, the two division favorites (Wisconsin and Nebraska) play the exact same schedule.
First, though, it begins with Saturday’s game at Wisconsin, where Nebraska hasn’t won since 1966. And, just in case this means anything to anyone Big and Red, the last time these two played, Wisconsin hung 70 on the Huskers in the 2012 Big Ten Championship Game.
Then there’s the backdrop of two of the top five tailbacks in the nation — Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon (1,501 yards, 19 TD) and Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah (1,250, 17 TD) — going head to head in an old school, run-first, throw only if you must game.
Cover your eyes, people. It’s wonderfully hideous.
Now, back to the way this thing plays out. After this weekend, the schedule looks like this:
Nebraska: vs. Minnesota, at Iowa.
Wisconsin: at Iowa, vs. Minnesota.
Whoever wins Saturday has essentially a two-game lead on the other with two to play. And if Ohio State beats Minnesota to give the Gophers three league losses, whoever wins Saturday in Madison needs one more victory over the final two weeks of the season to win the division.
5. Friend vs. friend
South Carolina plays at Florida on Saturday and two close friends in the coaching community might be looking at each on opposite sidelines for the last time.
The only question is, which coach forces the other out?
Florida’s Will Muschamp is in the homestretch of the improbable: winning out in SEC play and securing his job. South Carolina's Steve Spurrier is two games from arriving at the unthinkable: retiring after a season of championship hopes turned into his worst season in Columbia.
Know this: Spurrier isn’t one to hang around and collect a paycheck, or play out the string with a few ugly seasons. When it turns, he’ll be gone.
If the Gamecocks lose at Florida and at rival Clemson (where they will clearly be an underdog), they’ll finish 5-7 and out of the postseason. How significant will that be?
Not since his first year of coaching (Duke, 1987) has a Spurrier college team not been eligible for the postseason.
Then there's Muschamp, who has strung together back-to-back wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt but hasn’t saved his job just yet. A win over South Carolina likely will be enough — no matter what happens in the regular season final against rival Florida State.