AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the football season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply, it’s a recommended play.
Here’s a pick for a potential upset for this week’s NCAA Football card:
Syracuse Orange (2-4) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-4)
Going winless thus far in their conference, both Syracuse and Wake Forest head into Week 8 looking for their first win against a power-five opponent. According to initial Vegas odds, Wake Forest is listed as a +180 underdog, indicating just under a 36 percent chance of winning.
AccuScore data leans a bit more heavily towards the home team than does Vegas. As opposed to the 35.7 percent chance Vegas odds give Wake Forest, AccuScore simulations indicate a 49 percent chance of winning. AccuScore would have listed the Demon Deacons as slight +105 underdogs, even that being a tad too high since it specifically is a 49.7 percent probability. The Demon Deacons have nearly a 62 percent chance of covering a +5.5 spread.
Despite opening as 4-point road favorites, there’s one trend going against the Orange: they own the sixth-worst touchdown percentage in the red zone. Neither Vegas nor AccuScore projects Wake Forest to win. The difference between a 36 percent chance and 49 percent, however, is interesting. Wake Forest has a solid shot at pulling the upset, making the +180 very attractive.
In close simulations like this one, where the average outcome was 28.4-28.2, turnovers and turnover margin become extra crucial. After 10,000 simulations, both are projected to finish with about the same number of turnovers. When Wake Forest commits fewer turnovers than Syracuse, its winning probability goes up to 60 percent.
As discussed earlier, Syracuse has struggled to finish drives with touchdowns. They've managed to march down the field fairly consistently, but the red zone has been a nightmare for that offense. On the other side, Wake Forest ranks last in the country in yards per play (2.7). AccuScore projects a better performance from Wake Forest QB John Wolford (235 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 124.2 passer rating) than Syracuse QB Austin Wilson (231 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 117.2 passer rating)
Wake Forest’s fate this week is closely tied to running back Isaiah Robinson’s performance. Robinson is averaging about 35 rushing yards per simulated game. If he runs for better-than-average yards and at least one rushing touchdown -- which there’s a 21 percent chance of -- the Demon Deacon’s winning probability goes up to 63 percent.
Supporting Trends: Syracuse is 1-4 straight up (SU) in its last five games, and Wake Forest is 4-2 SU in its last six games at home.
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