Coming off of a solid Week 11. We split our Big Plays: Florida State (-19.5) started slow (again) and failed to cover, while Texas (+3.5) was dominant in a 17-point win over favorite West Virginia.
Our Other Plays did much better, going 3-1. Indiana (+6.5) turned the ball over deep in its own territory in the last few minutes, but managed to hold Penn State to a field goal and cover by a half-point. UCLA (-4.5) built a big lead and cruised to a 14-point win at Washington. Our other winner was Louisiana-Lafayette (-16), a 44-16 victor over an awful New Mexico State squad. Our lone Other Play loss was UNLV (+5.5), who we backed unsuccessfully for the second straight week.
Our leans were a perfect 3-0, with Arizona (-16.5), Fresno State (-2) and Louisiana Tech (-3.5) all covering.
Most of this week’s picks are below. Our Big Plays run in Friday’s edition of The Linemakers on Sporting News free newsletter. Sign up for that right here!
Week 11 Closing Line Value:
-- Florida State: picked -19.5, closed -21, CLV +1.5
-- Texas: picked +3.5, closed +3, CLV +0.5
-- Indiana: picked +6.5, closed +6, CLV +0.5
-- UCLA: picked -4.5, closed -5.5, CLV +1.0
-- Louisiana-Lafayette: picked -16, closed -16.75, CLV +0.75
-- UNLV: picked +5.5, closed +4.5, CLV +1.0
-- *Arizona: picked -16.5, closed -18.5, CLV +2.0
-- *Fresno State: picked -2, closed +1, CLV -3.0
-- *Louisiana Tech: picked -3.5, closed -5.25, CLV +1.75
*M-P Leans (non-official picks)
Week 12 Picks:
Big Plays (13-10-1 YTD)
-- Two plays this week. Register for The Linemakers’ newsletter now (it’s free), and check your email after 1 p.m. ET on Friday for our best bets.
Other Plays (24-15 YTD)
-- San Diego State +14 at Boise State [MP Line: SDSU +9.1]
-- Central Michigan -17 vs. Miami (OH) [MP Line: CM -22.5]
-- Tulane +10.5 at Memphis [MP Line: Tulane +6.2]
-- Alabama -8.5 vs. Mississippi State [MP Line: Bama -16.0]
-- UCF -20 vs. Tulsa (PENDING)
-- Ball State +4 at Massachusetts (LOSS)
MP Leans (14-11-1 YTD)
- -Army +9.5 at Western Kentucky [MP Line: Army +6.0]
-- Georgia Tech +3 vs. Clemson [MP Line: GT -0.8]
-- Kansas +28.5 at TCU [MP Line: Kansas +23.2]
-- Stanford -7.5 vs. Utah [MP Line: Stanford -14.9]
-- Rice +21.5 at Marshall [MP Line: Rice +16.5]
-- Troy +6.5 at Idaho [MP Line: Troy +2.5]
-- Maryland +12.5 vs. Michigan State [MP Line: Maryland +8.2]
Pick criteria is the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Leans (53.5-54%). Note that these estimates are conservative because lines tend to move our way. MP Lines are calculated by taking the difference in MP power ratings, giving a bonus for teams coming off a bye, adding home field advantage, adjusting for QB injury, and further adjusting for pace of play. Lines are the Vegas Insider consensus, current as of 2:20 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Massey-Peabody uses a quantitative approach to sports handicapping and uses its calculations to profit at the bet window. For more valuable betting information, visit Massey-Peabody.com.
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