The penultimate week of the college football season had the year’s biggest slate of games but very little betting value, as we posted only four official plays. Our Big Plays went 2-0 on the strength of big second halves. Indiana (-2.5) came back from a 6-point halftime deficit to win by a touchdown over Purdue, and Arkansas State (-22.5) outscored New Mexico State 42-14 in the second half to turn a tight game into a blowout.
Our second-level Other Plays went 1-1. Kansas (+28) was throttled by Kansas State, 51-13, but Missouri (+2.5) was an outright 21-14 winner at home against Arkansas.
Our unofficial MP Leans both lost (and neither was close): North Carolina (-6) was blown out at home by neighbor N.C. State, 35-7, and Southern Miss (+4) fell to the soon-to-be-extinct UAB football team, 45-24.
Our picks for this week are below. Big Plays (best bets) for both NFL and college run in Friday’s edition of The Linemakers on Sporting News’ free newsletter. Sign up for that right here!
Week 14 closing-line value
It was a much better week in terms of line value, with no lines moving against us and only one game not moving our way.
-- Indiana: picked -2.5, closed -2.5, CLV 0.0
-- Arkansas State: picked -22.5, closed -23.5, CLV +1.0
-- Kansas: picked +28, closed +26.5, CLV +1.5
-- North Carolina: picked -6, closed -6.5, CLV +0.5
-- Southern Miss: picked +4, closed +2.75, CLV +1.25
Week 15 picks:
With only the Big 12 and American Athletic Conference still playing regular-season football, coupled with conference championship games, there aren’t many games to choose from this week:
Big Plays (16-11-1 YTD)
-- None this week, but we do have one in the NFL. Sign up for the newsletter to see it, and be sure to check your email after 1 p.m. ET on Friday.
Other Plays (29-21 YTD)
-- Louisiana Tech +11 at Marshall [MP Line: La Tech +6.7]
MP Leans (18-18-1 YTD)
-- Alabama -14.5 vs. Missouri [MP Line: Alabama -19.5]
-- Ohio State +4 vs. Wisconsin [MP Line: Ohio St +0.5]
MP Lines (means, not medians) on remaining games
-- East Carolina -5.6 vs. UCF
-- Northern Illinois -9.5 vs. Bowling Green
-- Oregon -16.8 vs. Arizona
-- Connecticut -11.2 vs. Southern Methodist
-- TCU -33.8 vs. Iowa State
-- Temple -1.1 at Tulane
-- Cincinnati -6.8 vs. Houston
-- Baylor -7.1 vs. Kansas State
-- Oklahoma -23.6 vs. Oklahoma State
-- Florida State -5.2 vs. Georgia Tech
-- Boise State -20.5 vs. Fresno State
Pick Criteria: Big Plays (55%+ chance to cash), Other Plays (54-55%), Leans (53.5-54%). These estimates are based on regressing the MP line toward the market line. The amount of regression is determined by the historical predictive value of the MP number relative to the closing line. This means our cover probabilities will be conservative because lines tend to move our way. MP lines are calculated by taking the difference in power ratings, giving a bonus for teams coming off a bye, adding home-field advantage, adjusting for QB injuries, and adjusting for pace of play. Lines are the Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 11:05am PT Thursday.
Massey-Peabody uses a quantitative approach to sports handicapping and uses its calculations to profit at the bet window. For more valuable betting information, visit Massey-Peabody.com .
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