LAS VEGAS – The new No. 1 team in the country according to the media and coaches may be off in Week 8, but the other team from Mississippi continues its run toward an unbeaten season on Saturday, when the third-ranked Ole Miss Rebels host the Tennessee Volunteers. However, bettors seem to be fading the Rebels in early action at The Wynn sports book off two massive wins over the last two weeks.
Ole Miss may sit two spots behind the top-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs in the latest AP Top 25 and USA Today Coaches polls. But you could argue the Rebels' wins over Alabama (23-17 as 5.5-point home underdogs two weeks ago) and at Texas A&M (35-20 at Texas A&M as 2.5-point dogs this past Saturday) were bigger than the Bulldogs' victories against A&M and Auburn, both at home.
Ole Miss opened as a 19.5-point favorite against Tennessee at The Wynn, but bettors have pushed that line down to -16.5 since Sunday.
“People are probably thinking, this team just came off of two monster games,” Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s executive director of race & sports operations, told The Linemakers on Sporting News on Monday. “This is a really good football team. If you want to make that final four, you can’t lose this game. Because if you do lose this game, you’ve got Mississippi State the last game, you get Auburn in a couple weeks, you’ve got to go to Arkansas.
“It’s, how bad do you want it? If you think you’re season’s complete by beating Alabama and A&M, you’ve got a lot ahead of you. I don’t see a letdown here.”
Bettors also fading Missouri
The Missouri Tigers' 34-0 home loss to a Georgia squad without running back Todd Gurley apparently left a big impression on bettors. Missouri opened as a 2-point road underdog against the Florida Gators but has already moved to +4.5 at The Wynn and as high as +5 at other books.
This despite the Gators losing 30-27 at home to LSU and looking offensively-challenged behind junior QB Jeff Driskel. Florida did get some good news recently when freshman QB Treon Harris was cleared of sexual battery charges, putting him back into the mix to play against the Tigers on Saturday. According to Avello, this news plus Mizzou’s struggles last week have prompted bettors to back the Gators.
“Driskel’s been awful,” Avello said. “I guess that’s going to be the reason for the move because that kid (Harris) has been cleared and probably going to play this week. (But) the reason for the move has got to be the Missouri loss. I don’t know what happened against Georgia. Not to score a point at home, the chances of that happening are real, real slim. The reason for the move is an adjustment from the previous week, and that’s it.”
Clemson falls with Watson out
Clemson Tigers freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson suffered a broken finger on Saturday in the second quarter of a 23-17 home win over Louisville, and bettors do not seem to trust his backup Cole Stoudt nearly as much. The Tigers opened as 9-point road favorites against the Boston College Eagles and have moved down to -7 as of Monday afternoon. While Avello said Boston College has exceeded his expectations for this season, he also thinks Clemson should be favored by at least a touchdown.
“Boston College has been very surprising so far,” Avello said. “I didn’t expect Boston College to have this kind of year. It’s a football team that’s having a surprisingly good year. They do play Clemson every year, and I don’t think they’ve been very successful against them. I kind of understand the move, thinking Boston College will stay in the game, especially at home.
“I just thought Clemson overall was still the better team, still deserved to be the favorite on the road. Maybe a touchdown is the right number, maybe a touch higher than that. So I don’t disagree where it is now.”
Avello also said he factored Watson’s injury into the line. Watson will miss at least a month recovering from finger surgery, according to Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney.
“It looks like Clemson’s one of those teams that maybe won’t score as much with this guy (Stoudt); they’ll rely on the defense,” Avello said. “It’s a decent defensive team. When I saw Watson was out and that the team still won the game -- I saw the other quarterback played over half the game and kept them intact -- I made a little adjustment.”
Other notable Week 8 college football line moves (Saturday unless otherwise noted)
-- Utah from pick’ em up to -2.5 at Oregon State on Thursday-- Maryland from -1.5 up to -4.5 at home vs. Iowa
-- Oklahoma from -11 down to -9 at home vs. Kansas State
-- Georgia from -4.5 down to -3 at Arkansas (in Little Rock)
-- Alabama from -14 down to -12.5 at home vs. Texas A&M
Week 8 college football opening lines, Wynn
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