LAS VEGAS – While last week’s college football action saw some big upsets shake up the rankings, with three of the top four teams going down, there’s no rest for the weary. The schedule makers have done their best to provide very competitive matchups that will continue to test the remaining unbeatens. Bettors will find two more games pitting top 10 undefeated teams against each other on the Week 7 slate, including the second-ranked Auburn Tigers visiting the third-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs and the fifth-ranked Baylor Bears hosting the No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs.
“Usually when I do my college football numbers to win the national championship, I start them on Saturday night, and then I firm them up on Sunday morning,” Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, told The Linemakers on Sporting News on Monday. “I had a tough time with it this week because there are just so many teams in the mix.”
There has been little early line movement on those two games, with Auburn opening as a 3-point road favorite at Mississippi State and sitting at the same number on Monday afternoon, and Baylor dropping slightly from -11.5 to -10.5 against a TCU team that has covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings. Instead, the biggest moves so far for Week 7 have occurred in a pair of games featuring teams in major conferences who have already lost.
The California Golden Bears opened as 3-point home underdogs against the Washington Huskies in a key Pac-12 matchup but have since moved to 1-point favorites at The Wynn. The Golden Bears have lost the last five meetings with the Huskies, going 1-4 against the spread.
“Cal – we’ve seen what they’re going to do offensively – my God,” Avello said. “The points they put up every week is just incredible. But against Washington, they haven’t beaten this team in a long time. I know they haven’t beaten them at least in the last five years. I respect the way they’re playing.
“Washington lost a tight one to Stanford, (then) had a week off. Their schedule so far has been a little bit soft. The new coach (Chris) Petersen is a huge addition to that program, so we’ll see where this ends up going.”
The other big mover has come in the ACC, where the Clemson Tigers opened as 8.5-point home favorites against the Louisville Cardinals and are now up to -12 at The Wynn. Clemson is coming off a 41-0 rout of North Carolina State last week as a 14-point favorite, while Louisville won 28-6 at Syracuse last Thursday as 1.5-point chalk. The Cardinals hope to have quarterback Will Gardner back from a knee injury he suffered in a 34-3 victory at Florida International on Sept. 20.
“This was movement based on class alone,” Avello said. “Louisville’s quarterback Gardner might play this week, but their wide receiver is questionable for this game. They haven’t named who the quarterback’s going to be. This is just a game about class. Clemson’s two losses are to Georgia and Florida State, two top 10 teams basically. And so, the opening number was probably too cheap looking back. Giving Louisville maybe too much respect, but they really haven’t beaten anybody this year.”
Wolverines open as home dogs, now favored
The Michigan Wolverines continued their tailspin with a 26-24 loss at Rutgers last Saturday – their third defeat in a row and fourth in five games – but they covered the 2.5-point spread as underdogs after opening as 1.5-point road favorites at The Wynn. Following that latest setback, Avello opened the Penn State Nittany Lions as 1.5-point road chalk visiting Michigan this week, and he has again seen bettors take the home dog, moving the Wolverines to -1 in early betting action.
“(Michigan head coach) Brady Hoke could be in a lot of trouble up there,” Avello said. “This was a tough game for me. I thought it was a pick ’em game. Penn State lost to Northwestern two weeks ago, but Northwestern all of sudden is starting to play a little better ball. Penn State actually won at Rutgers, and they were actually the favorite in that game.
“What’s Michigan’s home field worth? They’re 2-2 at home, lost to Minnesota at home, lost to Utah at home. Their home field right now might be worth 2 points, so that puts you right there with Penn State maybe (minus) 1. That’s why the opener was what it was.”
Other notable Week 7 college football line moves
-- Arkansas State from -14.5 down to -10.5 at Georgia State
-- Rice from -3 down to pick’em at Army
-- Miami (Florida) from -11.5 up to -14 at home vs. Cincinnati
-- Memphis from -5.5 up to -8 at home vs. Houston
-- Georgia Tech from -4 up to -6 at home vs. Duke
Week 7 College Football Opening Lines Wynn
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