LAS VEGAS – A pair of Big Ten games have seen solid early line movement on Week 12’s college football slate, with one of them a lot more meaningful than the other. Nebraska visits Wisconsin in a matchup that could ultimately determine the Big Ten West Division title while Rutgers hosts Indiana in a game between the two worst teams in the Big Ten East. Bettors are backing the home teams so far after opening lines were released at The Wynn sports book on Sunday.
The Cornhuskers and Badgers are currently in a three-way tie atop the Big Ten West with Minnesota, and the Golden Gophers must play both teams on the road in their last two games after hosting Big Ten East leader Ohio State this week. Wisconsin opened as a 4-point home favorite against Nebraska at The Wynn but has since moved to -5.5 there as of Monday afternoon. Other shops around town, like the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, South Point and William Hill, released the Badgers -6.
Johnny Avello, The Wynn's executive director of race & sports operations, told The Linemakers on Sporting News on Monday that he believes the Cornhuskers are a little underrated in this spot. He said he does not think the Badgers should be favored by close to a touchdown while bettors and other oddsmakers obviously feel differently.
“Nebraska’s in the hunt for a national championship, so this is a big game for them,” Avello said. “I understand that the Wisconsin home field is pretty strong and has been for many years, but this is a big game right here. I don’t know if I’d give this Wisconsin team too much of an edge. I think it’s a lot closer than the spread’s showing right now. Nebraska’s got a good overall running game. Wisconsin of course, that’s their strength. I don’t know, I see this as a field goal game.”
Meanwhile, two Big Ten teams with a lot less to play for have seen a bigger line move on their game. Rutgers opened as a 5-point home favorite against Indiana but was up to -7.5 at The Wynn as of Monday afternoon. Apparently, the opening number was too small on the Scarlet Knights as well at The Wynn since the SuperBook and South Point both released them -8. Despite a 1-4 record in conference play, Rutgers is one win from becoming bowl eligible and coming off a bye week after playing some very tough competition in dropping its last three games.
“Rutgers just got beat up pretty good, maybe the reason they got beat up was maybe they’re playing too many good teams,” Avello said of a 37-0 home loss to Wisconsin before the bye. “At Ohio State, at Nebraska and home against Wisconsin. They didn’t have a chance, not even a sniff in any of those games. I guess at home the one game to look at is at home against Michigan, they opened up a small dog and went off as the favorite. And at home so far this year, throw the Wisconsin game out, they lost to Penn State in a close one, but besides that they’re 3-1 beating Tulane and Michigan.”
“Indiana’s always a tough team to get a handle on. They played at home against Penn State last week and lost a close game. Not much scoring, they haven’t been scoring much the last three games. Not a great road team at all. Maybe it’s just Rutgers went against three buzzsaws, and maybe that skewed my thinking on them. But (favored) over a touchdown? I don’t know.”
UMass now favored by field goal against Ball Sate
Massachusetts got off to a rough 0-6 start this season but has rebounded to win two of its last three. The Minutemen will get an opportunity to play on ESPNU Wednesday night at home versus Ball State. The Minutemen have covered the spread in their past five games, which may be one reason they have jumped from Pick’em to 3-point favorites against the Cardinals for the biggest early line move so far in Week 12.
“Except for the Eastern Michigan game, they were a dog in all of them,” Avello said of the UMass five-game cover streak. “I think they’re playing better, I don’t know if they deserve that much respect.”
“I didn’t give them as much respect as the players did, I’m still sticking with my original line. I think it’s probably a good number, so we’ll see if it continues to go up or comes back. I opened it where it should be, I didn’t know the players would run it up.”
Other notable Week 12 college football line moves (games Saturday unless otherwise noted)
--Clemson from -1 up to -2.5 at Georgia Tech
--Marshall from -19 up to -21 at home vs. Rice
--Nevada from -1 down to +1.5 at Air Force
--Oklahoma State from Pick’em down to +1.5 at home vs. Texas
College football Week 12 opening lines
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