LAS VEGAS – Defending national champion Florida State retained its spot at No. 3 in the latest edition of the College Football Playoff rankings and will look to extend its winning streak to 27 games against Boston College on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). The Seminoles passed their toughest test so far this season last week with a 30-26 victory at Miami as 2-point favorites, and they will host an Eagles team that has won three straight road games against ACC opponents.
The Line: Florida State -19.5, Total: 57
Line movement: Florida State opened as a 19-point home favorite at The Wynn on Sunday and moved to -20 after about an hour, before being nudged back down to -19.5 on Monday. William Hill opened FSU -20 and stayed there through early wagering. The total opened 56.5 at the Westgate and was pushed to 57. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: Boston College is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games as a road underdog....Boston College is 3-0 SU in its last three road games against ACC opponents....Boston College is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings with Florida State....Florida State is 26-0 SU in its last 26 games, going 15-11 ATS....Florida State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games....Florida State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite....The UNDER is 6-3 in Boston College’s last eight games as a road underdog....The UNDER is 3-0 in Florida State’s last three home games against ACC opponents....The UNDER is 4-1 in Florida State’s last five games as a home favorite.
Florida State locked into first four: Now that the defending national champion Seminoles have beaten the most difficult opponents on their schedule, all they have to do is keep winning and avoid the upset bug the rest of the way. All that stands between them and an opportunity to defend their NCAA title is this game against the Eagles, a meeting with Florida next week and a likely matchup with Duke or Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game.
While winning these last three games is one thing, covering the spread is another. According to Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s executive director of race & sports operations, Boston College is a bit of a live underdog capable of hanging in there against a Florida State team lacking motivation to run up the score.
“Florida State doesn’t have this urgency like the other teams do,” Avello said. “If they win this game by 10 points or two touchdowns, there’s still going to be no change (in the rankings). They don’t have the urgency.”
The Eagles were off last week following a 38-19 home loss to Louisville as 3-point underdogs. Avello said he believes that poor performance has inflated the line, with bettors putting early money on the Seminoles after he opened them as 19-point home favorites.
“The game against Louisville probably made this game go up a little bit,” Avello said. "(But) if you throw that game out, all their other games are competitive games, so I look for them to be somewhat competitive here too. Boston College has won all their road games this year.”
“They had the week off, and the last time they went to Florida State back in 2012, they got absolutely buried in that game. But that’s when Florida State was running up those numbers, scoring 45, 50 points a game. They’re not doing that right now. It’s not like their offense is sputtering because it’s not. It’s just that Florida State turns it on when they want to.”
Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 70s, mostly cloudy skies and light winds. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | Power Ratings | BC team page | FSU team page
The Linemakers' lean: Boston College is 4-0 on the road this season with three covers. The Seminoles, meanwhile, are 0-5 ATS at home. The Linemakers’ Vinny Magliulo is waiting for this line to get to 21 before he makes his play on BC, but Kenny White isn’t seeing the value in the Eagles, even at that price. Kenny likes the idea of taking advantage of the Seminoles' tendency to start slow with a first-half bet on BC.
While Jameis Winston absorbs the brunt of criticism for the Seminoles’ “struggles" (they’re unbeaten but just 3-7 ATS), it’s the FSU defense that deserves the blame. It’s ranked 50th in the country, allowing 5.3 yards per play. Kenny’s surprised the total is at low as it is and is on the OVER in this one.
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