Week 11 bowl projections: Sizing up 11 remaining College Football Playoff contenders

Bill Bender

Week 11 bowl projections: Sizing up 11 remaining College Football Playoff contenders  image

It's Week 11, and there are 11 teams with a legitimate chance at the College Football Playoff. 

That is the list of Power 5 teams with one loss or less, and there are some complications for each conference worth watching through conference championship weekend. Will one or two conferences be left out? A quick breakdown of each conference

ACC: Florida State (9-0) and Louisville (8-1) would be the best conference championship game. The Cardinals likely will not be forgiven for the 38-21 loss to Pitt if they beat the Seminoles.

Big 12: This one is simple. Texas (8-1) is the lone one-loss team standing, and they need to avoid spoilers through the Big 12 championship game. That head-to-head victory against Alabama is huge.

MORE: Week 11 slate features two Top 10 showdowns

Big Ten: Ohio State (9-0) and Michigan (9-0) could both get in the playoff again, but Penn State (8-1) could end that thought with a victory against the Wolverines on Saturday.  

Pac-12: Washington (9-0) and Oregon (8-1) could be headed toward a Pac-12 championship rematch. Given the Huskies are on the outside looking in now, will a win here be enough? 

SEC: Georgia (9-0) and Alabama (8-1) appear headed toward another SEC championship matchup. Is there room for both in the CFP again if the Crimson Tide win? Or will Ole Miss (8-1) spoil that party with an upset of the Bulldogs. 

Our picks have not changed yet. We have Ohio State taking on Georgia in the Allstate Sugar Bowl and Michigan and Florida State squaring off in the Rose Bowl. 

The College Football Playoff semifinals will be on Jan. 1, 2024. Those semifinals will be played at the Rose Bowl Game in Pasadena, Calif., and the Allstate Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Those locations were the sites of the first four-team playoff in 2014. 

The College Football Playoff championship game is on Jan. 9 at NRG Stadium in Houston. 

SN has projections for every bowl game here, and they will be updated each week for the remainder of the season: 

Week 11 college football bowl predictions 

A look at Sporting News bowl projections heading into Week 10 of the 2023 college football season: 

DATE BOWL PROJECTED MATCHUP
Dec. 16 HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl Northern Illinois vs. Western Kentucky
Dec. 16 R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Liberty vs. Georgia State
Dec. 16 Cure Bowl FAU vs. Texas State
Dec. 16 New Mexico Bowl Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State
Dec. 16 LA Bowl Arizona vs. Air Force
Dec. 16 Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl Houston vs. Washington State
Dec. 18 Myrtle Beach Bowl SMU vs. Georgia Southern
Dec. 19 Frisco Bowl Louisiana vs. South Florida
Dec. 21 RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl New Mexico State vs. Arkansas State
Dec. 22 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl BYU vs. Appalachian State
Dec. 23 Birmingham Bowl Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest
Dec. 23 Camellia Bowl Toledo vs. Troy
Dec. 23 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl West Virginia vs. UTSA
Dec. 23 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Central Michigan vs. Wyoming
Dec. 23 68 Ventures Bowl Ohio vs. Coastal Carolina
Dec. 23 SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl Nebraska vs. USC
Dec. 23 Easypost Hawai'i Bowl Rice vs. Fresno State
Dec. 26 Quick Lane Bowl Maryland vs. Miami, Ohio
Dec. 26 Servpro First Responder Bowl Iowa State vs. Northwestern
Dec. 26 Guaranteed Rate Bowl UNLV vs. Wisconsin
Dec. 27 Military Bowl Boston College vs. Navy
Dec. 27 Duke's Mayo Bowl Auburn vs. Clemson
Dec. 27 TaxAct Texas Bowl Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Dec. 28 Fenway Bowl Duke vs. Memphis
Dec. 28 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl Rutgers vs. Georgia Tech
Dec. 28 San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl Utah vs. Miami
Dec. 28 Pop-Tarts Bowl Kansas vs. Virginia Tech
Dec. 28 Valero Alamo Bowl Oklahoma State vs. Oregon State
Dec. 29 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Florida vs. North Carolina
Dec. 29 Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl UCLA vs. NC State
Dec. 29 AutoZone Liberty Bowl Kentucky vs. Kansas State
Dec. 30 Transperfect Music City Bowl Tennessee vs. Minnesota
Dec. 30 Barstool Arizona Bowl Bowling Green vs. Boise State
Jan. 1 Reliaquest Bowl LSU vs. Notre Dame
Jan. 1 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Missouri vs. Iowa

New Year's Day Six predictions 

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A look at our New Year's Day Six predictions for Week 11: 

DATE BOWL PROJECTED MATCHUP
Dec. 29 Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic Texas vs. Oregon
Dec. 30 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Alabama vs. Penn State
Dec. 30 Capital One Orange Bowl Ole Miss vs. Louisville
Jan. 1 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Tulane vs. Washington

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Texas vs. Oregon

This is the same matchup as last week. The Longhorns side-stepped an upset bid from Kansas State with a 33-30 overtime win. The Ducks are barreling toward a rematch with Washington in the Pac-12 championship game. Former Nick Saban assistant Steve Sarkisian vs. former Kirby Smart assistant Dan Lanning. This matchup would be fun. 

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Alabama vs. Penn State

An all-time classic uniform matchup. Will the Crimson Tide be the highest-ranked one-loss team in the next CFP rankings? Saban continues to win, and seeing Jalen Milroe and Drew Allar against the tough defenses in this matchup would be intriguing. The Crimson Tide and Nittany Lions still have good shots at the CFP, too. 

Capital One Orange Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Louisville 

The Rebels continue to win in the SEC West, and Lane Kiffin has this program on pace for a second New Year's Day Six appearance in three seasons. Louisville has been the most-surprising one-loss team in the FBS under first-year coach Jeff Brohm. Jawhar Jordan and Quinshon Judkins on the same field would be fun, too. 

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: Tulane vs. Washington 

The Green Wave was the highest-ranked team in the initial CFP rankings, but Liberty would be a candidate to get to this bowl if the Flames stay unbeaten in Conference-USA. Michael Pratt ranks fifth in the FBS in passer efficiency (175.8). The Huskies remain unbeaten in Pac-12 play, and Michael Penix Jr. remains in the Heisman Trophy conversation. 

MORE: Breaking down the Michael Penix-Caleb Williams shootout

College Football Playoff predictions 

DATE BOWL PROJECTED MATCHUP
Jan. 1 Rose Bowl Game (National semifinal) Michigan vs. Florida State
Jan. 1 Allstate Sugar Bowl (National semifinal) Georgia vs. Ohio State

Rose Bowl Game: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Florida State

The Wolverines are still facing scrutiny for a sign-stealing scandal, but they have outscored Michigan State and Purdue by a combined total of 90-13 the last two weeks. Florida State continues to cruise in the ACC. The Wolverines and Seminoles are both in the top five in the FBS in fewest turnovers. The quarterback matchup between J.J. McCarthy and Jordan Travis would be as advertised. 

MORE: What to know about fired Michigan staffer Connor Stalions

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State 

Wait, aren't the Buckeyes the No. 1 team in the latest rankings? True, but that also makes them a good bet to slip in the CFP even if they lose the regular-season finale against Michigan. The Wolverines do not have the same safety net. Georgia is inching toward the No. 1 ranking – and victories against Ole Miss and Tennessee the next two weeks would make that happen. This would be a fantastic rematch of last year's CFP semifinal. 

College Football Playoff championship pick 

DATE BOWL PROJECTED MATCHUP
Jan. 9 CFP championship game Georgia vs. Michigan

CFP championship game (Houston): Georgia vs. Michigan 

Despite the CFP rankings, there is no reason to adjust this yet. Georgia and Michigan are two of the three teams in the FBS that rank in the top 10 in scoring offense and scoring defense. Both teams have top-10 opponents in Week 11, and the Wolverines face Penn State, the other team with a top-10 scoring offense and defense. 

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.