No. 4 USC looks to secure its first-ever spot in the College Football Playoff with a win over No. 12 Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game. It won't come easy for the Trojans, though, as the Utes handed USC their lone loss of the season.
USC enters champ week following an impressive 38-27 home win over Notre Dame, ending the regular season with an 11-1 overall record. QB Caleb Williams showed why he's the runaway favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, completing 18-of-22 passes for 232 yards and one passing TD to go along with rushing for 35 yards and three TDs. USC's defense found a way to create timely turnovers as they've done all season, recovering a fumble in Notre Dame's first drive of the second half and intercepting Notre Dame QB Drew Pyne late in the fourth quarter.
Utah got some help in the final week of the regular season to win a three-way tiebreaker with Washington and Oregon to reach the Pac-12 Championship game. Long story short, Utah ended up winning the fourth tiebreaker with Washington and Oregon due to its overall conference strength of schedule and has a shot to essentially knock the Trojans out of playoff contention. The Utes secured a narrow 43-42 victory on a game-winning two-point conversion in Week 7 against USC and will look to advance to their second-straight Rose Bowl with a win.
MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING: Conference Championship ATS Picks
Can USC clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff with a win, or will Utah play spoiler? Here's everything to know about betting on the Pac-12 Championship matchup between the Trojans and Utes:
USC vs. Utah odds
- Spread: USC -3 (-110); Utah +3 (-110)
- Over/Under: 67
- Moneyline: USC -150; Utah +125
USC currently sits as three-point favorites in this neutral site clash in Vegas with a relatively high over/under of 67. While the Trojans enter the Pac-12 Championship game playing their best football, it's worth noting that Utah closed as a 3.5-point home favorite back in Week 7, implying that these teams would be priced close to a pick 'em on a neutral field. USC's red-hot play is factored into the current betting line.
Three trends to know
— USC's past six games have all gone OVER the total, as their elite offense coupled with their bend-but-don't-break defense is a perfect recipe for high-scoring contests.
— Conversely, four of the past five Utah games have fallen UNDER the total.
— According to BetQL, "Utah’s three losses this year have all come away from home, and Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas could feel like a home game for USC."
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Three things to watch
—Can Utah contain Caleb Williams?: Williams all but has the Heisman on lock at this point, as his elite arm talent coupled with his ability to extend plays outside the pocket puts immense stress on defenses. Williams also has a star-studded supporting cast, including an offensive line that sports PFF's 10th-highest pass-blocking grade (83.2) and sure-handed receivers. While Williams completed just 60 percent of his passes in USC's Week 7 loss, he still threw for 381 yards and five TDs. Williams doesn't have many weaknesses, but he's only completed 50 percent of his passes under pressure this year (53-of-106). Utah's defensive line has to find a way to consistently put Williams under duress.
—Will USC end the game with a positive turnover margin?: One of the main catalysts in USC's success this season is a result of its NCAA-leading plus-23 turnover margin. Despite the Trojans sporting the 61st-best scoring defense (26.33 points per game) Alex Grinch's defense always finds a way to come away with turnovers at timely moments. If they're able to create a clutch takeaway or two and once again win the turnover battle, they'll be on their way to the College Football Playoff.
—Which team gets more stops on defense?: Given USC and Utah combined for 85 points and 1,118 total yards in Week 7, there's a really high chance Friday's rematch is another shootout. Whichever team can force their opponent into more third-and-longs and field goal attempts is going to have the upper hand.
USC vs. Utah Prediction
USC's entering the Pac-12 Championship game playing its best football, exactly what a team with National Championship aspirations wants. While the line value may actually lie with the Utes getting a field goal on a neutral field, it's really tough to bet against Caleb Williams right now. Williams lights up the Utes' defense for a second time, but this go-around, the Trojans' defense does enough to limit Utah's offense. Lincoln Riley and company claim the Pac-12 crown and secure the school's first-ever trip to the CFP.
Prediction: USC 41, Utah 34. USC (-3) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (67).
